Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China
Objective To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods This study deve...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SAGE Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of International Medical Research |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/0300060518764268 |
| _version_ | 1819140874322313216 |
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| author | Tianmu Chen Bin Zhao Ruchun Liu Xixing Zhang Zhi Xie Shuilian Chen |
| author_facet | Tianmu Chen Bin Zhao Ruchun Liu Xixing Zhang Zhi Xie Shuilian Chen |
| author_sort | Tianmu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods This study developed a susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school. Results The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive. Conclusion Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T11:45:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-225b6f5b6dce4c3a8e4a5b31bd666d98 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1473-2300 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T11:45:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of International Medical Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-225b6f5b6dce4c3a8e4a5b31bd666d982022-12-21T18:27:08ZengSAGE PublishingJournal of International Medical Research1473-23002020-01-014810.1177/0300060518764268Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, ChinaTianmu ChenBin ZhaoRuchun LiuXixing ZhangZhi XieShuilian ChenObjective To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods This study developed a susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school. Results The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive. Conclusion Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak.https://doi.org/10.1177/0300060518764268 |
| spellingShingle | Tianmu Chen Bin Zhao Ruchun Liu Xixing Zhang Zhi Xie Shuilian Chen Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China Journal of International Medical Research |
| title | Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China |
| title_full | Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China |
| title_short | Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China |
| title_sort | simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in changsha china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/0300060518764268 |
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