Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification
The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to f...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 |
| _version_ | 1797747127397384192 |
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| author | Eric Mortenson Andrew Lenton Elizabeth H Shadwick Thomas W Trull Matthew A Chamberlain Xuebin Zhang |
| author_facet | Eric Mortenson Andrew Lenton Elizabeth H Shadwick Thomas W Trull Matthew A Chamberlain Xuebin Zhang |
| author_sort | Eric Mortenson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO _2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a ‘business as usual’ CO _2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55 °C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-225e746eec2d41599b8e74bc01f71287 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:41Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-225e746eec2d41599b8e74bc01f712872023-08-09T15:21:27ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161212406310.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidificationEric Mortenson0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3282-4974Andrew Lenton1Elizabeth H Shadwick2Thomas W Trull3Matthew A Chamberlain4Xuebin Zhang5CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, Australia; Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP) , University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR) , Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, Australia; Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP) , University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR) , Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, AustraliaCSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere , Hobart, Australia; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR) , Hobart, AustraliaThe ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO _2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a ‘business as usual’ CO _2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55 °C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57climate changeocean biogeochemical modelocean warming and acidification |
| spellingShingle | Eric Mortenson Andrew Lenton Elizabeth H Shadwick Thomas W Trull Matthew A Chamberlain Xuebin Zhang Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification Environmental Research Letters climate change ocean biogeochemical model ocean warming and acidification |
| title | Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
| title_full | Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
| title_fullStr | Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
| title_full_unstemmed | Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
| title_short | Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
| title_sort | divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification |
| topic | climate change ocean biogeochemical model ocean warming and acidification |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d57 |
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