Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia
Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-02-01
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| Series: | Urban Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/4/1/10 |
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| author | Mostapha Harb Matthias Garschagen Davide Cotti Elke Krätzschmar Hayet Baccouche Karem Ben Khaled Felicitas Bellert Bouraoui Chebil Anis Ben Fredj Sonia Ayed Himanshu Shekhar Michael Hagenlocher |
| author_facet | Mostapha Harb Matthias Garschagen Davide Cotti Elke Krätzschmar Hayet Baccouche Karem Ben Khaled Felicitas Bellert Bouraoui Chebil Anis Ben Fredj Sonia Ayed Himanshu Shekhar Michael Hagenlocher |
| author_sort | Mostapha Harb |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate future-oriented decision-making by exploring alternative development scenarios. With the example of the coastal city of Monastir, we present the results of an integrated urban growth analysis that combines the SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade) cellular automata model with qualitative inputs from relevant local stakeholders to simulate urban growth until 2030. While historical time-series of Landsat data fed a business-as-usual prediction, the quantification of narrative storylines derived from participatory scenario workshops enabled the creation of four additional urban growth scenarios. Results show that the growth of the city will occur at different rates under all scenarios. Both the “business-as-usual” (BaU) prediction and the four scenarios revealed that urban expansion is expected to further encroach on agricultural land by 2030. The various scenarios suggest that Monastir will expand between 127−149 hectares. The information provided here goes beyond simply projecting past trends, giving decision-makers the necessary support for both understanding possible future urban expansion pathways and proactively managing the future growth of the city. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T22:32:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-226528ec26414ead84a08cf350a4668f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2413-8851 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T22:32:10Z |
| publishDate | 2020-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Urban Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-226528ec26414ead84a08cf350a4668f2022-12-21T18:48:03ZengMDPI AGUrban Science2413-88512020-02-01411010.3390/urbansci4010010urbansci4010010Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, TunisiaMostapha Harb0Matthias Garschagen1Davide Cotti2Elke Krätzschmar3Hayet Baccouche4Karem Ben Khaled5Felicitas Bellert6Bouraoui Chebil7Anis Ben Fredj8Sonia Ayed9Himanshu Shekhar10Michael Hagenlocher11Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Luisenstraße 37, 80333 Munich, GermanyInstitute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, GermanyIndustrieanlagen-Betriebsgesellschaft mbH (IABG mbH), Einsteinstr. 20, 85521 Ottobrunn, GermanyIndustrieanlagen-Betriebsgesellschaft mbH (IABG mbH), Einsteinstr. 20, 85521 Ottobrunn, GermanyIndustrieanlagen-Betriebsgesellschaft mbH (IABG mbH), Einsteinstr. 20, 85521 Ottobrunn, GermanyIndustrieanlagen-Betriebsgesellschaft mbH (IABG mbH), Einsteinstr. 20, 85521 Ottobrunn, GermanyMunicipality of Monastir, Municipalité de Monastir, Avenue Habib Bourguiba, 5019 Monastir, TunisiaMunicipality of Monastir, Municipalité de Monastir, Avenue Habib Bourguiba, 5019 Monastir, TunisiaMunicipality of Monastir, Municipalité de Monastir, Avenue Habib Bourguiba, 5019 Monastir, TunisiaInstitute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, GermanyInstitute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, GermanyCurrent rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate future-oriented decision-making by exploring alternative development scenarios. With the example of the coastal city of Monastir, we present the results of an integrated urban growth analysis that combines the SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade) cellular automata model with qualitative inputs from relevant local stakeholders to simulate urban growth until 2030. While historical time-series of Landsat data fed a business-as-usual prediction, the quantification of narrative storylines derived from participatory scenario workshops enabled the creation of four additional urban growth scenarios. Results show that the growth of the city will occur at different rates under all scenarios. Both the “business-as-usual” (BaU) prediction and the four scenarios revealed that urban expansion is expected to further encroach on agricultural land by 2030. The various scenarios suggest that Monastir will expand between 127−149 hectares. The information provided here goes beyond simply projecting past trends, giving decision-makers the necessary support for both understanding possible future urban expansion pathways and proactively managing the future growth of the city.https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/4/1/10participatory modelingfuture urban expansionsleuthbusiness as usual predictionalternative scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Mostapha Harb Matthias Garschagen Davide Cotti Elke Krätzschmar Hayet Baccouche Karem Ben Khaled Felicitas Bellert Bouraoui Chebil Anis Ben Fredj Sonia Ayed Himanshu Shekhar Michael Hagenlocher Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia Urban Science participatory modeling future urban expansion sleuth business as usual prediction alternative scenarios |
| title | Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia |
| title_full | Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia |
| title_fullStr | Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia |
| title_short | Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia |
| title_sort | integrating data driven and participatory modeling to simulate future urban growth scenarios findings from monastir tunisia |
| topic | participatory modeling future urban expansion sleuth business as usual prediction alternative scenarios |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/4/1/10 |
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