A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation
Abstract This study has developed a scenery analysis model which has integrated decision-making tools on investments: prospective scenarios (Grumbach Method) and systems dynamics (hard modeling), with the innovated multivariate analysis of experts. It was designed through analysis and simulation sce...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidade de São Paulo
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| Series: | RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0080-21072017000100003&lng=en&tlng=en |
| _version_ | 1811232460002820096 |
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| author | Henrique Dias Blois Ricardo Silveira Martins |
| author_facet | Henrique Dias Blois Ricardo Silveira Martins |
| author_sort | Henrique Dias Blois |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study has developed a scenery analysis model which has integrated decision-making tools on investments: prospective scenarios (Grumbach Method) and systems dynamics (hard modeling), with the innovated multivariate analysis of experts. It was designed through analysis and simulation scenarios and showed which are the most striking events in the study object as well as highlighted the actions could redirect the future of the analyzed system. Moreover, predictions are likely to be developed through the generated scenarios. The model has been validated empirically with road freight transport data from state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that the model contributes to the analysis of investment because it identifies probabilities of events that impact on decision making, and identifies priorities for action, reducing uncertainties in the future. Moreover, it allows an interdisciplinary discussion that correlates different areas of knowledge, fundamental when you wish more consistency in creating scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:04:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-228b9b0601e84cf2b0f9cdec49e4532c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1984-6142 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:04:12Z |
| publisher | Universidade de São Paulo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo |
| spelling | doaj.art-228b9b0601e84cf2b0f9cdec49e4532c2022-12-22T03:35:51ZengUniversidade de São PauloRAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo1984-614252131410.1016/j.rausp.2016.09.005S0080-21072017000100003A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportationHenrique Dias BloisRicardo Silveira MartinsAbstract This study has developed a scenery analysis model which has integrated decision-making tools on investments: prospective scenarios (Grumbach Method) and systems dynamics (hard modeling), with the innovated multivariate analysis of experts. It was designed through analysis and simulation scenarios and showed which are the most striking events in the study object as well as highlighted the actions could redirect the future of the analyzed system. Moreover, predictions are likely to be developed through the generated scenarios. The model has been validated empirically with road freight transport data from state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that the model contributes to the analysis of investment because it identifies probabilities of events that impact on decision making, and identifies priorities for action, reducing uncertainties in the future. Moreover, it allows an interdisciplinary discussion that correlates different areas of knowledge, fundamental when you wish more consistency in creating scenarios.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0080-21072017000100003&lng=en&tlng=enDecisión de inversionesanálisis de escenariosModelo de predicciónTransporte de carga por carretera |
| spellingShingle | Henrique Dias Blois Ricardo Silveira Martins A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation RAUSP: Revista de Administração da Universidade de São Paulo Decisión de inversiones análisis de escenarios Modelo de predicción Transporte de carga por carretera |
| title | A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation |
| title_full | A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation |
| title_fullStr | A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation |
| title_full_unstemmed | A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation |
| title_short | A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation |
| title_sort | model of integration among prediction tools applied study to road freight transportation |
| topic | Decisión de inversiones análisis de escenarios Modelo de predicción Transporte de carga por carretera |
| url | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0080-21072017000100003&lng=en&tlng=en |
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