Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan.
Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. In recent decades, dengue fever has spread throughout the world. In 2014 and 2015, southern Taiwan experienced its most serious dengue outbreak in recent years. Some statistical models have been established in the past, however, these models...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020-07-01
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| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008434 |
| _version_ | 1818402171281997824 |
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| author | Yu-Chieh Cheng Fang-Jing Lee Ya-Ting Hsu Eric V Slud Chao A Hsiung Chun-Hong Chen Ching-Len Liao Tzai-Hung Wen Chiu-Wen Chang Jui-Hun Chang Hsiao-Yu Wu Te-Pin Chang Pei-Sheng Lin Hui-Pin Ho Wen-Feng Hung Jing-Dong Chou Hsiao-Hui Tsou |
| author_facet | Yu-Chieh Cheng Fang-Jing Lee Ya-Ting Hsu Eric V Slud Chao A Hsiung Chun-Hong Chen Ching-Len Liao Tzai-Hung Wen Chiu-Wen Chang Jui-Hun Chang Hsiao-Yu Wu Te-Pin Chang Pei-Sheng Lin Hui-Pin Ho Wen-Feng Hung Jing-Dong Chou Hsiao-Hui Tsou |
| author_sort | Yu-Chieh Cheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. In recent decades, dengue fever has spread throughout the world. In 2014 and 2015, southern Taiwan experienced its most serious dengue outbreak in recent years. Some statistical models have been established in the past, however, these models may not be suitable for predicting huge outbreaks in 2014 and 2015. The control of dengue fever has become the primary task of local health agencies. This study attempts to predict the occurrence of dengue fever in order to achieve the purpose of timely warning. We applied a newly developed autoregressive model (AR model) to assess the association between daily weather variability and daily dengue case number in 2014 and 2015 in Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern Taiwan. This model also contained additional lagged weather predictors, and developed 5-day-ahead and 15-day-ahead predictive models. Our results indicate that numbers of dengue cases in Kaohsiung are associated with humidity and the biting rate (BR). Our model is simple, intuitive and easy to use. The developed model can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule, and the data (at present) can be updated daily or weekly based on the needs of public health workers. In this study, a simple model using only meteorological factors performed well. The proposed real-time forecast model can help health agencies take public health actions to mitigate the influences of the epidemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:04:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-22c7f66aa1b44728ba42d4bd8385dab3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T08:04:07Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-22c7f66aa1b44728ba42d4bd8385dab32022-12-21T23:10:15ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352020-07-01147e000843410.1371/journal.pntd.0008434Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan.Yu-Chieh ChengFang-Jing LeeYa-Ting HsuEric V SludChao A HsiungChun-Hong ChenChing-Len LiaoTzai-Hung WenChiu-Wen ChangJui-Hun ChangHsiao-Yu WuTe-Pin ChangPei-Sheng LinHui-Pin HoWen-Feng HungJing-Dong ChouHsiao-Hui TsouDengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. In recent decades, dengue fever has spread throughout the world. In 2014 and 2015, southern Taiwan experienced its most serious dengue outbreak in recent years. Some statistical models have been established in the past, however, these models may not be suitable for predicting huge outbreaks in 2014 and 2015. The control of dengue fever has become the primary task of local health agencies. This study attempts to predict the occurrence of dengue fever in order to achieve the purpose of timely warning. We applied a newly developed autoregressive model (AR model) to assess the association between daily weather variability and daily dengue case number in 2014 and 2015 in Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern Taiwan. This model also contained additional lagged weather predictors, and developed 5-day-ahead and 15-day-ahead predictive models. Our results indicate that numbers of dengue cases in Kaohsiung are associated with humidity and the biting rate (BR). Our model is simple, intuitive and easy to use. The developed model can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule, and the data (at present) can be updated daily or weekly based on the needs of public health workers. In this study, a simple model using only meteorological factors performed well. The proposed real-time forecast model can help health agencies take public health actions to mitigate the influences of the epidemic.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008434 |
| spellingShingle | Yu-Chieh Cheng Fang-Jing Lee Ya-Ting Hsu Eric V Slud Chao A Hsiung Chun-Hong Chen Ching-Len Liao Tzai-Hung Wen Chiu-Wen Chang Jui-Hun Chang Hsiao-Yu Wu Te-Pin Chang Pei-Sheng Lin Hui-Pin Ho Wen-Feng Hung Jing-Dong Chou Hsiao-Hui Tsou Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan. |
| title_full | Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan. |
| title_fullStr | Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan. |
| title_short | Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan. |
| title_sort | real time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in southern taiwan |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008434 |
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