Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins
Study region: To provide a picture of hydrological impact of climate change across different climatic zones in Europe, this study considers eight river basins: Tagus in Iberian Peninsula; Emån and Lule in Scandinavia; Rhine, Danube and Teteriv in Central and Eastern Europe; Tay on the island of Grea...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581817303877 |
| _version_ | 1811269555524206592 |
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| author | Anastasia Lobanova Stefan Liersch Joao Pedro Nunes Iulii Didovets Judith Stagl Shaochun Huang Hagen Koch María del Rocío Rivas López Cathrine Fox Maule Fred Hattermann Valentina Krysanova |
| author_facet | Anastasia Lobanova Stefan Liersch Joao Pedro Nunes Iulii Didovets Judith Stagl Shaochun Huang Hagen Koch María del Rocío Rivas López Cathrine Fox Maule Fred Hattermann Valentina Krysanova |
| author_sort | Anastasia Lobanova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: To provide a picture of hydrological impact of climate change across different climatic zones in Europe, this study considers eight river basins: Tagus in Iberian Peninsula; Emån and Lule in Scandinavia; Rhine, Danube and Teteriv in Central and Eastern Europe; Tay on the island of Great Britain and Northern Dvina in North-Eastern Europe. Study focus: In this study the assessment of the impacts of moderate and high-end climate change scenarios on the hydrological patterns in European basins was conducted. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was set up, calibrated and validated for the basins. The SWIM was driven by the bias-corrected climate projections obtained from the coupled simulations of the Global Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show robust decreasing trends in water availability in the most southern river basin (Tagus), an overall increase in discharge in the most northern river basin (Lule), increase in the winter discharge and shift in seasonality in Northern and Central European catchments. The impacts of the high-end climate change scenario RCP 8.5 continue to develop until the end of the century, while those of the moderate climate change scenario RCP 4.5 level-off after the mid-century. The results of this study also confirm trends, found previously with mostly global scale models. Keywords: European rivers, Climate change, Hydrology, Eco-hydrological modelling, Climate change impact, High-end scenarios |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:45:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-22e16cd56c5d4ad98a8ade66e639ea56 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:45:20Z |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-22e16cd56c5d4ad98a8ade66e639ea562022-12-22T03:15:40ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182018-08-01181530Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basinsAnastasia Lobanova0Stefan Liersch1Joao Pedro Nunes2Iulii Didovets3Judith Stagl4Shaochun Huang5Hagen Koch6María del Rocío Rivas López7Cathrine Fox Maule8Fred Hattermann9Valentina Krysanova10Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, Germany; Corresponding author.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, GermanyCE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisboa, PortugalPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, Germany; Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Volodymyrska Street 64/13, 01601, Kyiv, UkrainePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, GermanyNorwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Middelthunsgate 29, 0368 Oslo, NorwayPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, GermanyStatistics Denmark, Sejroegade 11, DK-2100, Copenhagen, DenmarkPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14437, Potsdam, GermanyStudy region: To provide a picture of hydrological impact of climate change across different climatic zones in Europe, this study considers eight river basins: Tagus in Iberian Peninsula; Emån and Lule in Scandinavia; Rhine, Danube and Teteriv in Central and Eastern Europe; Tay on the island of Great Britain and Northern Dvina in North-Eastern Europe. Study focus: In this study the assessment of the impacts of moderate and high-end climate change scenarios on the hydrological patterns in European basins was conducted. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was set up, calibrated and validated for the basins. The SWIM was driven by the bias-corrected climate projections obtained from the coupled simulations of the Global Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show robust decreasing trends in water availability in the most southern river basin (Tagus), an overall increase in discharge in the most northern river basin (Lule), increase in the winter discharge and shift in seasonality in Northern and Central European catchments. The impacts of the high-end climate change scenario RCP 8.5 continue to develop until the end of the century, while those of the moderate climate change scenario RCP 4.5 level-off after the mid-century. The results of this study also confirm trends, found previously with mostly global scale models. Keywords: European rivers, Climate change, Hydrology, Eco-hydrological modelling, Climate change impact, High-end scenarioshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581817303877 |
| spellingShingle | Anastasia Lobanova Stefan Liersch Joao Pedro Nunes Iulii Didovets Judith Stagl Shaochun Huang Hagen Koch María del Rocío Rivas López Cathrine Fox Maule Fred Hattermann Valentina Krysanova Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| title | Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins |
| title_full | Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins |
| title_fullStr | Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins |
| title_short | Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins |
| title_sort | hydrological impacts of moderate and high end climate change across european river basins |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581817303877 |
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