Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.
We assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals) can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a p...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2016-04-01
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| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4821482?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818338643998146560 |
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| author | Robin N Thompson Christopher A Gilligan Nik J Cunniffe |
| author_facet | Robin N Thompson Christopher A Gilligan Nik J Cunniffe |
| author_sort | Robin N Thompson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals) can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a population. For emerging epidemics, significant time and effort is spent recording symptomatic cases. Scientific attention has often focused on improving statistical methodologies to estimate disease transmission parameters from these data. Here we show that, even if symptomatic cases are recorded perfectly, and disease spread parameters are estimated exactly, it is impossible to estimate the probability of a major outbreak without ambiguity. Our results therefore provide an upper bound on the accuracy of forecasts of major outbreaks that are constructed using data on symptomatic cases alone. Accurate prediction of whether or not an epidemic will occur requires records of symptomatic individuals to be supplemented with data concerning the true infection status of apparently uninfected individuals. To forecast likely future behavior in the earliest stages of an emerging outbreak, it is therefore vital to develop and deploy accurate diagnostic tests that can determine whether asymptomatic individuals are actually uninfected, or instead are infected but just do not yet show detectable symptoms. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T15:14:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-23030b5574894c91ac0ea70b63c4b2c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T15:14:23Z |
| publishDate | 2016-04-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-23030b5574894c91ac0ea70b63c4b2c72022-12-21T23:40:45ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582016-04-01124e100483610.1371/journal.pcbi.1004836Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.Robin N ThompsonChristopher A GilliganNik J CunniffeWe assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals) can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a population. For emerging epidemics, significant time and effort is spent recording symptomatic cases. Scientific attention has often focused on improving statistical methodologies to estimate disease transmission parameters from these data. Here we show that, even if symptomatic cases are recorded perfectly, and disease spread parameters are estimated exactly, it is impossible to estimate the probability of a major outbreak without ambiguity. Our results therefore provide an upper bound on the accuracy of forecasts of major outbreaks that are constructed using data on symptomatic cases alone. Accurate prediction of whether or not an epidemic will occur requires records of symptomatic individuals to be supplemented with data concerning the true infection status of apparently uninfected individuals. To forecast likely future behavior in the earliest stages of an emerging outbreak, it is therefore vital to develop and deploy accurate diagnostic tests that can determine whether asymptomatic individuals are actually uninfected, or instead are infected but just do not yet show detectable symptoms.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4821482?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Robin N Thompson Christopher A Gilligan Nik J Cunniffe Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. |
| title_full | Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. |
| title_fullStr | Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. |
| title_short | Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks. |
| title_sort | detecting presymptomatic infection is necessary to forecast major epidemics in the earliest stages of infectious disease outbreaks |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4821482?pdf=render |
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