The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19
Objective(s): To estimate the impact of universal community face mask use in Victoria, Australia along with other routine disease control measures in place.Methods: A mathematical modeling study using an age structured deterministic model for Victoria, was simulated for 123 days between 1 June 2020...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.625499/full |
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| author | Valentina Costantino Chandini Raina MacIntyre Chandini Raina MacIntyre Chandini Raina MacIntyre |
| author_facet | Valentina Costantino Chandini Raina MacIntyre Chandini Raina MacIntyre Chandini Raina MacIntyre |
| author_sort | Valentina Costantino |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective(s): To estimate the impact of universal community face mask use in Victoria, Australia along with other routine disease control measures in place.Methods: A mathematical modeling study using an age structured deterministic model for Victoria, was simulated for 123 days between 1 June 2020 and 1 October 2020, incorporating lockdown, contact tracing, and case findings with and without mask use in varied scenarios. The model tested the impact of differing scenarios of the universal use of face masks in Victoria, by timing, varying mask effectiveness, and uptake.Results: A six-week lockdown with standard control measures, but no masks, would have resulted in a large resurgence by September, following the lifting of restrictions. Mask use can substantially reduce the epidemic size, with a greater impact if at least 50% of people wear a mask which has an effectiveness of at least 40%. Early mask use averts more cases than mask usage that is only implemented closer to the peak. No mask use, with a 6-week lockdown, results in 67,636 cases and 120 deaths by 1 October 2020 if no further lockdowns are used. If mask use at 70% uptake commences on 23 July 2020, this is reduced to 7,961 cases and 42 deaths. We estimated community mask effectiveness to be 11%.Conclusion(s): Lockdown and standard control measures may not have controlled the epidemic in Victoria. Mask use can substantially improve epidemic control if its uptake is higher than 50% and if moderately effective masks are used. Early mask use should be considered in other states if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask wearing mandates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T12:43:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2328ad591f84428bba112c9557fa1f7b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T12:43:46Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-2328ad591f84428bba112c9557fa1f7b2022-12-21T23:45:32ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652021-04-01910.3389/fpubh.2021.625499625499The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19Valentina Costantino0Chandini Raina MacIntyre1Chandini Raina MacIntyre2Chandini Raina MacIntyre3The Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, AustraliaThe Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, AustraliaCollege of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United StatesCollege of Public Affairs and Community Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United StatesObjective(s): To estimate the impact of universal community face mask use in Victoria, Australia along with other routine disease control measures in place.Methods: A mathematical modeling study using an age structured deterministic model for Victoria, was simulated for 123 days between 1 June 2020 and 1 October 2020, incorporating lockdown, contact tracing, and case findings with and without mask use in varied scenarios. The model tested the impact of differing scenarios of the universal use of face masks in Victoria, by timing, varying mask effectiveness, and uptake.Results: A six-week lockdown with standard control measures, but no masks, would have resulted in a large resurgence by September, following the lifting of restrictions. Mask use can substantially reduce the epidemic size, with a greater impact if at least 50% of people wear a mask which has an effectiveness of at least 40%. Early mask use averts more cases than mask usage that is only implemented closer to the peak. No mask use, with a 6-week lockdown, results in 67,636 cases and 120 deaths by 1 October 2020 if no further lockdowns are used. If mask use at 70% uptake commences on 23 July 2020, this is reduced to 7,961 cases and 42 deaths. We estimated community mask effectiveness to be 11%.Conclusion(s): Lockdown and standard control measures may not have controlled the epidemic in Victoria. Mask use can substantially improve epidemic control if its uptake is higher than 50% and if moderately effective masks are used. Early mask use should be considered in other states if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask wearing mandates.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.625499/fullCoronavirus – COVID-19mask effectivenessuniversal masks usemodeling studyoutbreak control |
| spellingShingle | Valentina Costantino Chandini Raina MacIntyre Chandini Raina MacIntyre Chandini Raina MacIntyre The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19 Frontiers in Public Health Coronavirus – COVID-19 mask effectiveness universal masks use modeling study outbreak control |
| title | The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19 |
| title_full | The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19 |
| title_short | The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19 |
| title_sort | impact of universal mask use on sars cov 2 in victoria australia on the epidemic trajectory of covid 19 |
| topic | Coronavirus – COVID-19 mask effectiveness universal masks use modeling study outbreak control |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.625499/full |
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