Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events
Plastic environmental pollution is threatening water resources, aquatic ecosystems, and human wellbeing but is still highly uncertain with global fluxes to sea of 0.4–13 Mt\yr, and up to 517 Mt of mismanaged plastics on land. Catchment modelling tools are required to challenge current knowledge, sim...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad163f |
| _version_ | 1797356791324999680 |
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| author | François Clayer Magnus D Norling Kathinka Fürst Rachel Hurley Glenn Bryan A Creencia Daeniel Zarene P Msojica Jose Carlo R Dizon Yan Lin Luca Nizzetto Noel A Sedigo Marianne Olsen Hans Fredrik Veiteberg Braten |
| author_facet | François Clayer Magnus D Norling Kathinka Fürst Rachel Hurley Glenn Bryan A Creencia Daeniel Zarene P Msojica Jose Carlo R Dizon Yan Lin Luca Nizzetto Noel A Sedigo Marianne Olsen Hans Fredrik Veiteberg Braten |
| author_sort | François Clayer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Plastic environmental pollution is threatening water resources, aquatic ecosystems, and human wellbeing but is still highly uncertain with global fluxes to sea of 0.4–13 Mt\yr, and up to 517 Mt of mismanaged plastics on land. Catchment modelling tools are required to challenge current knowledge, simulate impacts of management initiatives, and complement global and observation-based studies. Here we present the first spatiotemporally explicit model for mismanaged plastic mobilization and transport from land to sea from the INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) family. INCA-Macroplastics encompasses all components of the catchment, is driven by available data (weather, population, solid waste) and enables calibration and validation against diverse observations (river monitoring, household surveys). INCA-Macroplastics was applied to the Imus River, Philippines, one of World’s most polluted rivers. Given large uncertainties on catchment plastic retention, two calibrations and two emission scenarios were developed to describe catchment plastic fluxes, residence time and stocks over 1990–2020. Plastic fluxes to the sea are highly variable over years and seasons (55–75% exported during the wet season) and have increased exponentially over 1990–2020 from 5–100 to 2000–15000 tons\yr. INCA-Macroplastics is the first model handling plastic accumulation on land and highlights the importance of extreme flooding events in mobilizing and transporting legacy plastics. Model outputs explicitly show that current land plastic pollution can impact fluxes to the ocean for up to 30 years into the future. INCA-Macroplastics is useful to provide tailored recommendations for local monitoring, testing waste management scenarios and pointing towards future research avenues. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:31:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-233f8d8f92b04c4791e2381113798065 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:31:49Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-233f8d8f92b04c4791e23811137980652024-01-12T07:28:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262024-01-0119101500110.1088/1748-9326/ad163fModelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme eventsFrançois Clayer0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6939-400XMagnus D Norling1Kathinka Fürst2Rachel Hurley3Glenn Bryan A Creencia4Daeniel Zarene P Msojica5Jose Carlo R Dizon6Yan Lin7Luca Nizzetto8Noel A Sedigo9Marianne Olsen10Hans Fredrik Veiteberg Braten11Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayCavite State University (CvSU) , Indang, Cavite, The PhilippinesCavite State University (CvSU) , Indang, Cavite, The PhilippinesCavite State University (CvSU) , Indang, Cavite, The PhilippinesNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayCavite State University (CvSU) , Indang, Cavite, The PhilippinesNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) , Økernveien 94, 0579 Oslo, NorwayPlastic environmental pollution is threatening water resources, aquatic ecosystems, and human wellbeing but is still highly uncertain with global fluxes to sea of 0.4–13 Mt\yr, and up to 517 Mt of mismanaged plastics on land. Catchment modelling tools are required to challenge current knowledge, simulate impacts of management initiatives, and complement global and observation-based studies. Here we present the first spatiotemporally explicit model for mismanaged plastic mobilization and transport from land to sea from the INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) family. INCA-Macroplastics encompasses all components of the catchment, is driven by available data (weather, population, solid waste) and enables calibration and validation against diverse observations (river monitoring, household surveys). INCA-Macroplastics was applied to the Imus River, Philippines, one of World’s most polluted rivers. Given large uncertainties on catchment plastic retention, two calibrations and two emission scenarios were developed to describe catchment plastic fluxes, residence time and stocks over 1990–2020. Plastic fluxes to the sea are highly variable over years and seasons (55–75% exported during the wet season) and have increased exponentially over 1990–2020 from 5–100 to 2000–15000 tons\yr. INCA-Macroplastics is the first model handling plastic accumulation on land and highlights the importance of extreme flooding events in mobilizing and transporting legacy plastics. Model outputs explicitly show that current land plastic pollution can impact fluxes to the ocean for up to 30 years into the future. INCA-Macroplastics is useful to provide tailored recommendations for local monitoring, testing waste management scenarios and pointing towards future research avenues.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad163fmacroplasticsmismanaged plastic wasteriver transport modellingextreme eventscatchment |
| spellingShingle | François Clayer Magnus D Norling Kathinka Fürst Rachel Hurley Glenn Bryan A Creencia Daeniel Zarene P Msojica Jose Carlo R Dizon Yan Lin Luca Nizzetto Noel A Sedigo Marianne Olsen Hans Fredrik Veiteberg Braten Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events Environmental Research Letters macroplastics mismanaged plastic waste river transport modelling extreme events catchment |
| title | Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events |
| title_full | Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events |
| title_fullStr | Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events |
| title_short | Modelling plastic fluxes with INCA-macroplastics in the Imus catchment: impacts of long-term accumulation and extreme events |
| title_sort | modelling plastic fluxes with inca macroplastics in the imus catchment impacts of long term accumulation and extreme events |
| topic | macroplastics mismanaged plastic waste river transport modelling extreme events catchment |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad163f |
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