Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system
This study presents a model to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) (June–September) based on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ISMR time series data sets are classified into two parts for modeling purposes, viz., (1) training data set (1871–1960), and (2) testing data set (1961–20...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2018-07-01
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| Series: | Geoscience Frontiers |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987117301408 |
| _version_ | 1797766078924849152 |
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| author | Pritpal Singh |
| author_facet | Pritpal Singh |
| author_sort | Pritpal Singh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study presents a model to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) (June–September) based on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ISMR time series data sets are classified into two parts for modeling purposes, viz., (1) training data set (1871–1960), and (2) testing data set (1961–2014). Statistical analyzes reflect the dynamic nature of the ISMR, which couldn't be predicted efficiently by statistical and mathematical based models. Therefore, this study suggests the usage of three techniques, viz., fuzzy set, entropy and artificial neural network (ANN). Based on these techniques, a novel ISMR time series forecasting model is designed to deal with the dynamic nature of the ISMR. This model is verified and validated with training and testing data sets. Various statistical analyzes and comparison studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Keywords: Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), Fuzzy set, Entropy, Artificial neural network (ANN), Forecasting |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:20:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-234470b63f834d67940226f93f2e3423 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-9871 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:20:10Z |
| publishDate | 2018-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscience Frontiers |
| spelling | doaj.art-234470b63f834d67940226f93f2e34232023-08-02T00:59:34ZengElsevierGeoscience Frontiers1674-98712018-07-019412431257Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert systemPritpal Singh0Smt. Chandaben Mohanbhai Patel Institute of Computer Applications, CHARUSAT Campus, Changa, Anand 388421, Gujarat, IndiaThis study presents a model to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) (June–September) based on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ISMR time series data sets are classified into two parts for modeling purposes, viz., (1) training data set (1871–1960), and (2) testing data set (1961–2014). Statistical analyzes reflect the dynamic nature of the ISMR, which couldn't be predicted efficiently by statistical and mathematical based models. Therefore, this study suggests the usage of three techniques, viz., fuzzy set, entropy and artificial neural network (ANN). Based on these techniques, a novel ISMR time series forecasting model is designed to deal with the dynamic nature of the ISMR. This model is verified and validated with training and testing data sets. Various statistical analyzes and comparison studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Keywords: Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), Fuzzy set, Entropy, Artificial neural network (ANN), Forecastinghttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987117301408 |
| spellingShingle | Pritpal Singh Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system Geoscience Frontiers |
| title | Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system |
| title_full | Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system |
| title_fullStr | Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system |
| title_short | Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecasting using time series data: A fuzzy-entropy-neuro based expert system |
| title_sort | indian summer monsoon rainfall ismr forecasting using time series data a fuzzy entropy neuro based expert system |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987117301408 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pritpalsingh indiansummermonsoonrainfallismrforecastingusingtimeseriesdataafuzzyentropyneurobasedexpertsystem |