Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios
Abstract Drought has become a major threat to local sustainable development in dryland Asia, one of the largest grassland ecosystems in the world. However, empirical‐ and science‐based evidence regarding the extent of drought changes and the future trends of these changes in dryland Asia is variable...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001337 |
| _version_ | 1818506040762695680 |
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| author | Lijuan Miao Suyuan Li Feng Zhang Tiexi Chen Yunpeng Shan Yushan Zhang |
| author_facet | Lijuan Miao Suyuan Li Feng Zhang Tiexi Chen Yunpeng Shan Yushan Zhang |
| author_sort | Lijuan Miao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Drought has become a major threat to local sustainable development in dryland Asia, one of the largest grassland ecosystems in the world. However, empirical‐ and science‐based evidence regarding the extent of drought changes and the future trends of these changes in dryland Asia is variable and incomplete. Here, we first investigate the historical variations in drought conditions in dryland Asia, as measured by the drought intensity and arid area, using three widely used drought indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). Then, we use Bayesian model averaging to reproduce the future drought conditions under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models. The Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index illustrate that dryland Asia has experienced an overall drying trend and an expansion of arid areas over the past 100 years (1901–2016). Both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase under both the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios compared with the values from the reference period (1986–2005). The projected drought conditions in the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios will worsen, especially across Kazakhstan and Northwest China. We found that the drought conditions under the 2.0 °C warming conditions will not be as severe as those under the 1.5 °C warming conditions due to the mitigating effect of the projected precipitation increase under RCP4.5. These results call for short‐term and long‐term mitigation and adaptation measurements for drought events in dryland Asia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:59:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-234a603385484018a277e7d4ad19956a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:59:03Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-234a603385484018a277e7d4ad19956a2022-12-22T01:31:57ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772020-06-0186n/an/a10.1029/2019EF001337Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming ScenariosLijuan Miao0Suyuan Li1Feng Zhang2Tiexi Chen3Yunpeng Shan4Yushan Zhang5School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Science University of Wyoming Laramie WY USAKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaAbstract Drought has become a major threat to local sustainable development in dryland Asia, one of the largest grassland ecosystems in the world. However, empirical‐ and science‐based evidence regarding the extent of drought changes and the future trends of these changes in dryland Asia is variable and incomplete. Here, we first investigate the historical variations in drought conditions in dryland Asia, as measured by the drought intensity and arid area, using three widely used drought indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). Then, we use Bayesian model averaging to reproduce the future drought conditions under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models. The Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index illustrate that dryland Asia has experienced an overall drying trend and an expansion of arid areas over the past 100 years (1901–2016). Both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase under both the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios compared with the values from the reference period (1986–2005). The projected drought conditions in the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios will worsen, especially across Kazakhstan and Northwest China. We found that the drought conditions under the 2.0 °C warming conditions will not be as severe as those under the 1.5 °C warming conditions due to the mitigating effect of the projected precipitation increase under RCP4.5. These results call for short‐term and long‐term mitigation and adaptation measurements for drought events in dryland Asia.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001337droughtdryland Asia1.5 °C2.0 °CCMIP5 |
| spellingShingle | Lijuan Miao Suyuan Li Feng Zhang Tiexi Chen Yunpeng Shan Yushan Zhang Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios Earth's Future drought dryland Asia 1.5 °C 2.0 °C CMIP5 |
| title | Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios |
| title_full | Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios |
| title_short | Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios |
| title_sort | future drought in the dry lands of asia under the 1 5 and 2 0 °c warming scenarios |
| topic | drought dryland Asia 1.5 °C 2.0 °C CMIP5 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001337 |
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