Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain
Accurate short-term forecasts of daily reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>0</sub>) are essential for real-time irrigation scheduling. Many models rely on current and historical temperature data to estimate daily ET<sub>0</sub>. However, easily accessible temperature forecas...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/18/2888 |
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| author | Lei Zhang Xin Zhao Jiankun Ge Jiaqi Zhang Seydou Traore Guy Fipps Yufeng Luo |
| author_facet | Lei Zhang Xin Zhao Jiankun Ge Jiaqi Zhang Seydou Traore Guy Fipps Yufeng Luo |
| author_sort | Lei Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurate short-term forecasts of daily reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>0</sub>) are essential for real-time irrigation scheduling. Many models rely on current and historical temperature data to estimate daily ET<sub>0</sub>. However, easily accessible temperature forecasts are relatively less reported in short-term ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting. Furthermore, the accuracy of ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting from different models varies locally and also across regions. We used five temperature-dependent models to forecast daily ET<sub>0</sub> for a 7-day horizon in the North China Plain (NCP): the McCloud (MC), Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Thornthwaite (TH), and reduced-set Penman–Monteith (RPM) models. Daily meteorological data collected between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014 at 17 weather stations in NCP to calibrate and validate the five ET<sub>0</sub> models against the ASCE Penman–Monteith (ASCE-PM). Forecast temperatures for up to 7 d ahead for 1 January 2015–19 June 2021 were input to the five calibrated models to forecast ET<sub>0</sub>. The performance of the five models improved for forecasts at all stations after calibration. The calibrated RPM is the preferred choice for forecasting ET<sub>0</sub> in NCP. In descending order of preference, the remaining models were ranked as HS, TH, BC, and MC. Sensitivity analysis showed that a change in maximum temperature influenced the accuracy of ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting by the five models, especially RPM, HS, and TH, more than other variables. Meanwhile, the calibrated RPM and HS equations were better than the other models, and thus, these two equations were recommended for short-term ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting in NCP. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:11:06Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:11:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-23b3c0d095fd4d71804c8ab01693a8212023-11-23T19:31:46ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-09-011418288810.3390/w14182888Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China PlainLei Zhang0Xin Zhao1Jiankun Ge2Jiaqi Zhang3Seydou Traore4Guy Fipps5Yufeng Luo6School of Water Conservation, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaSchool of Water Conservation, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaSchool of Water Conservation, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaSchool of Water Conservation, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, ChinaDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USADepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USAState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, ChinaAccurate short-term forecasts of daily reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>0</sub>) are essential for real-time irrigation scheduling. Many models rely on current and historical temperature data to estimate daily ET<sub>0</sub>. However, easily accessible temperature forecasts are relatively less reported in short-term ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting. Furthermore, the accuracy of ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting from different models varies locally and also across regions. We used five temperature-dependent models to forecast daily ET<sub>0</sub> for a 7-day horizon in the North China Plain (NCP): the McCloud (MC), Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Thornthwaite (TH), and reduced-set Penman–Monteith (RPM) models. Daily meteorological data collected between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014 at 17 weather stations in NCP to calibrate and validate the five ET<sub>0</sub> models against the ASCE Penman–Monteith (ASCE-PM). Forecast temperatures for up to 7 d ahead for 1 January 2015–19 June 2021 were input to the five calibrated models to forecast ET<sub>0</sub>. The performance of the five models improved for forecasts at all stations after calibration. The calibrated RPM is the preferred choice for forecasting ET<sub>0</sub> in NCP. In descending order of preference, the remaining models were ranked as HS, TH, BC, and MC. Sensitivity analysis showed that a change in maximum temperature influenced the accuracy of ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting by the five models, especially RPM, HS, and TH, more than other variables. Meanwhile, the calibrated RPM and HS equations were better than the other models, and thus, these two equations were recommended for short-term ET<sub>0</sub> forecasting in NCP.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/18/2888reference evapotranspiration forecastingtemperature forecaststemperature-based modelsPenman-MonteithNorth China Plain |
| spellingShingle | Lei Zhang Xin Zhao Jiankun Ge Jiaqi Zhang Seydou Traore Guy Fipps Yufeng Luo Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain Water reference evapotranspiration forecasting temperature forecasts temperature-based models Penman-Monteith North China Plain |
| title | Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain |
| title_full | Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain |
| title_short | Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain |
| title_sort | evaluation of five equations for short term reference evapotranspiration forecasting using public temperature forecasts for north china plain |
| topic | reference evapotranspiration forecasting temperature forecasts temperature-based models Penman-Monteith North China Plain |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/18/2888 |
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