Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus
The paper is devoted to the urgent problem of statistical forecasting for the dynamics of the main epidemiological indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Belarus based on the observed time series. To solve this problem, five methods are proposed: forecasting method based on «moving...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Belarusian |
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Belarusian State University
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Журнал Белорусского государственного университета: Математика, информатика |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/mathematics/article/view/3451 |
| _version_ | 1818894641895833600 |
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| author | Yuriy S. Kharin Valery A. Valoshka Oksana V. Dernakova Vladimir I. Malugin Alexey Yu. Kharin |
| author_facet | Yuriy S. Kharin Valery A. Valoshka Oksana V. Dernakova Vladimir I. Malugin Alexey Yu. Kharin |
| author_sort | Yuriy S. Kharin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper is devoted to the urgent problem of statistical forecasting for the dynamics of the main epidemiological indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Belarus based on the observed time series. To solve this problem, five methods are proposed: forecasting method based on «moving trends»; local-median forecasting method; forecasting method based on discrete time series; forecasting method based on the vector econometric error correction model; method of sequential statistical analysis. Algorithms for computation of point and interval forecasts for the main epidemiological indicators have been developed. The numerical results of computer forecasting are presented on the example of the Republic of Belarus. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T18:31:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-23b944f100a3456abdebe60374ffe46c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2520-6508 2617-3956 |
| language | Belarusian |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T18:31:44Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Belarusian State University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Журнал Белорусского государственного университета: Математика, информатика |
| spelling | doaj.art-23b944f100a3456abdebe60374ffe46c2022-12-21T20:10:42ZbelBelarusian State UniversityЖурнал Белорусского государственного университета: Математика, информатика2520-65082617-39562020-12-013365010.33581/2520-6508-2020-3-36-503451Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of BelarusYuriy S. Kharin0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4226-2546Valery A. Valoshka1Oksana V. Dernakova2Vladimir I. Malugin3Alexey Yu. Kharin4Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, BelarusResearch Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, BelarusResearch Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, BelarusBelarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, BelarusResearch Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, BelarusThe paper is devoted to the urgent problem of statistical forecasting for the dynamics of the main epidemiological indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Belarus based on the observed time series. To solve this problem, five methods are proposed: forecasting method based on «moving trends»; local-median forecasting method; forecasting method based on discrete time series; forecasting method based on the vector econometric error correction model; method of sequential statistical analysis. Algorithms for computation of point and interval forecasts for the main epidemiological indicators have been developed. The numerical results of computer forecasting are presented on the example of the Republic of Belarus.https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/mathematics/article/view/3451forecasting, probability model, time series, point forecast, interval forecast, covid-19 |
| spellingShingle | Yuriy S. Kharin Valery A. Valoshka Oksana V. Dernakova Vladimir I. Malugin Alexey Yu. Kharin Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus Журнал Белорусского государственного университета: Математика, информатика forecasting, probability model, time series, point forecast, interval forecast, covid-19 |
| title | Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus |
| title_full | Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus |
| title_fullStr | Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus |
| title_short | Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus |
| title_sort | statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for covid 19 incidence in the republic of belarus |
| topic | forecasting, probability model, time series, point forecast, interval forecast, covid-19 |
| url | https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/mathematics/article/view/3451 |
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