Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system
The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992–2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food sy...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007 |
| _version_ | 1797748811381080064 |
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| author | Michael J Puma Satyajit Bose So Young Chon Benjamin I Cook |
| author_facet | Michael J Puma Satyajit Bose So Young Chon Benjamin I Cook |
| author_sort | Michael J Puma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992–2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85% of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90%, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9% (3.8%) for 1992–1996, increasing to 11% (5.7%) for 2005–2009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2% (2.2%) to 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:10:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-23cd037cda88455b9ff34f5755d8c27f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:10:12Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-23cd037cda88455b9ff34f5755d8c27f2023-08-09T14:09:17ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-0110202400710.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food systemMichael J Puma0Satyajit Bose1So Young Chon2Benjamin I Cook3Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University , 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, USA; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.The Earth Institute, Columbia University , 2929 Broadway, 5th Floor, New York, NY, USAKorea Volunteer Organization International , 32 WonSeodong, Jongno-gu Seoul, KoreaNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, USAThe world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992–2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18 year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85% of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90%, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9% (3.8%) for 1992–1996, increasing to 11% (5.7%) for 2005–2009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2% (2.2%) to 14% (5.2%). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007global food systemcomplex networkstrade restrictionsextremesfaminestaple foods |
| spellingShingle | Michael J Puma Satyajit Bose So Young Chon Benjamin I Cook Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system Environmental Research Letters global food system complex networks trade restrictions extremes famine staple foods |
| title | Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system |
| title_full | Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system |
| title_short | Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system |
| title_sort | assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system |
| topic | global food system complex networks trade restrictions extremes famine staple foods |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007 |
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