Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012)
Abstract Background Pancreatic cancer is acquiring increasing prominence as a cause of cancer death in the population. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term pancreatic cancer mortality trends in Spain and evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on these tr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2018-06-01
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| Series: | BMC Cancer |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12885-018-4494-3 |
| _version_ | 1819170837371027456 |
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| author | Daniel Seoane-Mato Olivier Nuñez Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea Beatriz Pérez-Gómez Marina Pollán Gonzalo López-Abente Nuria Aragonés |
| author_facet | Daniel Seoane-Mato Olivier Nuñez Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea Beatriz Pérez-Gómez Marina Pollán Gonzalo López-Abente Nuria Aragonés |
| author_sort | Daniel Seoane-Mato |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Pancreatic cancer is acquiring increasing prominence as a cause of cancer death in the population. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term pancreatic cancer mortality trends in Spain and evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on these trends. Methods Population and mortality data for the period 1952–2012 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Pancreatic cancer deaths were identified using the International Classification of Diseases ICD-6 to ICD-9 (157 code) and ICD-10 (C25 code). Age-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates were computed by sex, region and five-year period. Changes in pancreatic cancer mortality trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression analyses by sex and region. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results In men, rates increased by 4.1% per annum from 1975 until the mid-1980s and by 1.1% thereafter. In women, there was an increase of 3.6% per annum until the late 1980s, and 1.4% per annum from 1987 to 2012. With reference to the cohort effects, there was an increase in mortality until the generations born in the 1950s in men and a subsequent decline detected by the change point in 1960. A similar trend was observed in women, but the change point occurred 10 years later than in men. Conclusions Pancreatic cancer mortality increased over the study period in both sexes and all regions. An important rise in rates -around 4% annually- was registered until the 1980s, and upward trends were more moderate subsequently. The differences among sexes in trends in younger generations may be linked to different past prevalence of exposure to some risk factors, particularly tobacco, which underwent an earlier decrease in men than in women. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T19:41:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-23f18665208542719a94e29bd01d02b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2407 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T19:41:44Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Cancer |
| spelling | doaj.art-23f18665208542719a94e29bd01d02b62022-12-21T18:14:50ZengBMCBMC Cancer1471-24072018-06-0118111010.1186/s12885-018-4494-3Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012)Daniel Seoane-Mato0Olivier Nuñez1Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea2Beatriz Pérez-Gómez3Marina Pollán4Gonzalo López-Abente5Nuria Aragonés6Research Unit, Spanish Society of RheumatologyCancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of HealthCancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of HealthCancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of HealthCancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of HealthCancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of HealthCancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of HealthAbstract Background Pancreatic cancer is acquiring increasing prominence as a cause of cancer death in the population. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term pancreatic cancer mortality trends in Spain and evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on these trends. Methods Population and mortality data for the period 1952–2012 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Pancreatic cancer deaths were identified using the International Classification of Diseases ICD-6 to ICD-9 (157 code) and ICD-10 (C25 code). Age-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates were computed by sex, region and five-year period. Changes in pancreatic cancer mortality trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression analyses by sex and region. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results In men, rates increased by 4.1% per annum from 1975 until the mid-1980s and by 1.1% thereafter. In women, there was an increase of 3.6% per annum until the late 1980s, and 1.4% per annum from 1987 to 2012. With reference to the cohort effects, there was an increase in mortality until the generations born in the 1950s in men and a subsequent decline detected by the change point in 1960. A similar trend was observed in women, but the change point occurred 10 years later than in men. Conclusions Pancreatic cancer mortality increased over the study period in both sexes and all regions. An important rise in rates -around 4% annually- was registered until the 1980s, and upward trends were more moderate subsequently. The differences among sexes in trends in younger generations may be linked to different past prevalence of exposure to some risk factors, particularly tobacco, which underwent an earlier decrease in men than in women.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12885-018-4494-3Pancreatic cancerTobacco smokingMortalityAge-period-cohort analysisChange-pointsTime trends |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Seoane-Mato Olivier Nuñez Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea Beatriz Pérez-Gómez Marina Pollán Gonzalo López-Abente Nuria Aragonés Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012) BMC Cancer Pancreatic cancer Tobacco smoking Mortality Age-period-cohort analysis Change-points Time trends |
| title | Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012) |
| title_full | Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012) |
| title_fullStr | Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012) |
| title_short | Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952–2012) |
| title_sort | long term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in spain 1952 2012 |
| topic | Pancreatic cancer Tobacco smoking Mortality Age-period-cohort analysis Change-points Time trends |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12885-018-4494-3 |
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