Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium
We use proxy data and modeled data from 1000 year model simulations with a variety of climate forcings to examine the occurrence of severe event of persistent drought over eastern China during the last millennium and diagnose the mechanisms. Results show that the model was able to roughly simulate m...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014-05-01
|
| Series: | Climate of the Past |
| Online Access: | http://www.clim-past.net/10/1079/2014/cp-10-1079-2014.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818024846511046656 |
|---|---|
| author | Y. Peng C. Shen H. Cheng Y. Xu |
| author_facet | Y. Peng C. Shen H. Cheng Y. Xu |
| author_sort | Y. Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We use proxy data and modeled data from 1000 year model simulations with a
variety of climate forcings to examine the occurrence of severe event of
persistent drought over eastern China during the last millennium and diagnose
the mechanisms. Results show that the model was able to roughly simulate most
of these droughts over the study area during the last millennium such as
those that occurred during the periods of 1123–1152, 1197–1223, 1353–1363,
1428–1449, 1479–1513, and 1632–1645.
<br><br>
Our analyses suggest that these six well-captured droughts may caused by the
East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) weakening. Study on the wavelet transform
and spectral analysis reveals these events occurred all at the statistically
significant 15–35-year timescale. A modeled data intercomparison suggests
the possibility that solar activity may be the primary driver in the
occurrence of the 1129–1144, 1354–1365, 1466–1491 and 1631–1648 droughts
as identified by the model. However another possibility that these events may
be related to internal variability cannot be excluded. Although the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon
variability, a temporally consistent relationship between the droughts and
SST pattern in the Pacific Ocean could not be found either in the modeled or
proxy data. Our analyses also indicate that large volcanic eruptions play a
role as an amplifier in the drought of 1631–1648 and caused the droughts of
1830–1853 and 1958–1976, which was identified by the model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T04:06:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2401529f83234850aa2b7f28f6afa86a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-9324 1814-9332 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T04:06:42Z |
| publishDate | 2014-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate of the Past |
| spelling | doaj.art-2401529f83234850aa2b7f28f6afa86a2022-12-22T02:02:49ZengCopernicus PublicationsClimate of the Past1814-93241814-93322014-05-011031079109110.5194/cp-10-1079-2014Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millenniumY. Peng0C. Shen1H. Cheng2Y. Xu3Department of Earth Environmental Science, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, ChinaKey Laboratory of Plateau Lake Ecology and Global Change, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, ChinaInstitute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, ChinaLaboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, ChinaWe use proxy data and modeled data from 1000 year model simulations with a variety of climate forcings to examine the occurrence of severe event of persistent drought over eastern China during the last millennium and diagnose the mechanisms. Results show that the model was able to roughly simulate most of these droughts over the study area during the last millennium such as those that occurred during the periods of 1123–1152, 1197–1223, 1353–1363, 1428–1449, 1479–1513, and 1632–1645. <br><br> Our analyses suggest that these six well-captured droughts may caused by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) weakening. Study on the wavelet transform and spectral analysis reveals these events occurred all at the statistically significant 15–35-year timescale. A modeled data intercomparison suggests the possibility that solar activity may be the primary driver in the occurrence of the 1129–1144, 1354–1365, 1466–1491 and 1631–1648 droughts as identified by the model. However another possibility that these events may be related to internal variability cannot be excluded. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, a temporally consistent relationship between the droughts and SST pattern in the Pacific Ocean could not be found either in the modeled or proxy data. Our analyses also indicate that large volcanic eruptions play a role as an amplifier in the drought of 1631–1648 and caused the droughts of 1830–1853 and 1958–1976, which was identified by the model.http://www.clim-past.net/10/1079/2014/cp-10-1079-2014.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. Peng C. Shen H. Cheng Y. Xu Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium Climate of the Past |
| title | Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium |
| title_full | Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium |
| title_short | Modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern China during the last millennium |
| title_sort | modeling of severe persistent droughts over eastern china during the last millennium |
| url | http://www.clim-past.net/10/1079/2014/cp-10-1079-2014.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ypeng modelingofseverepersistentdroughtsovereasternchinaduringthelastmillennium AT cshen modelingofseverepersistentdroughtsovereasternchinaduringthelastmillennium AT hcheng modelingofseverepersistentdroughtsovereasternchinaduringthelastmillennium AT yxu modelingofseverepersistentdroughtsovereasternchinaduringthelastmillennium |