Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China
BackgroundWith the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.MethodsWe emplo...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1322019/full |
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| author | Wanci Wang Yuxia Ma Pengpeng Qin Zongrui Liu Yuhan Zhao Haoran Jiao |
| author_facet | Wanci Wang Yuxia Ma Pengpeng Qin Zongrui Liu Yuhan Zhao Haoran Jiao |
| author_sort | Wanci Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundWith the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.MethodsWe employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field.ResultsThis cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196.ConclusionThe study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T02:09:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-24100b7dcd6f4f4593bb06f31b4c0dfe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T02:09:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-24100b7dcd6f4f4593bb06f31b4c0dfe2023-12-07T14:46:43ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-12-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.13220191322019Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in ChinaWanci Wang0Yuxia Ma1Pengpeng Qin2Zongrui Liu3Yuhan Zhao4Haoran Jiao5College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaLiaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang, ChinaBackgroundWith the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.MethodsWe employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field.ResultsThis cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196.ConclusionThe study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1322019/fullcold spelltemperature changemortalityexcess deathhealth risks |
| spellingShingle | Wanci Wang Yuxia Ma Pengpeng Qin Zongrui Liu Yuhan Zhao Haoran Jiao Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China Frontiers in Public Health cold spell temperature change mortality excess death health risks |
| title | Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China |
| title_full | Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China |
| title_short | Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China |
| title_sort | assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in china |
| topic | cold spell temperature change mortality excess death health risks |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1322019/full |
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