Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern
The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a |
| _version_ | 1797344867910680576 |
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| author | Rohit Ghosh Elisa Manzini Yongqi Gao Guillaume Gastineau Annalisa Cherchi Claude Frankignoul Yu-Chiao Liang Young-Oh Kwon Lingling Suo Evangelos Tyrlis Jennifer V Mecking Tian Tian Ying Zhang Daniela Matei |
| author_facet | Rohit Ghosh Elisa Manzini Yongqi Gao Guillaume Gastineau Annalisa Cherchi Claude Frankignoul Yu-Chiao Liang Young-Oh Kwon Lingling Suo Evangelos Tyrlis Jennifer V Mecking Tian Tian Ying Zhang Daniela Matei |
| author_sort | Rohit Ghosh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5–6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:09:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-241e30b203914869af95c7258d26a54f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:09:08Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-241e30b203914869af95c7258d26a54f2024-01-26T13:50:26ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262024-01-0119202401810.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1aObserved winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia patternRohit Ghosh0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9888-7292Elisa Manzini1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9405-7838Yongqi Gao2Guillaume Gastineau3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5478-1119Annalisa Cherchi4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0178-9264Claude Frankignoul5Yu-Chiao Liang6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9347-2466Young-Oh Kwon7Lingling Suo8https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2385-4730Evangelos Tyrlis9https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0423-4926Jennifer V Mecking10Tian Tian11Ying Zhang12Daniela Matei13Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology , Hamburg, Germany; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United Kingdom; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , Bremerhaven, GermanyMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology , Hamburg, GermanyNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwayUMR LOCEAN, Sorbonne Universiteé, CNRS/IRD/MNHN , Paris, FranceNational Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Science and Climate (CNR-ISAC) , Bologna, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Bologna, ItalyUMR LOCEAN, Sorbonne Universiteé, CNRS/IRD/MNHN , Paris, France; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution , Woods Hole, MA, United States of AmericaWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution , Woods Hole, MA, United States of America; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University , Taipei, TaiwanWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution , Woods Hole, MA, United States of AmericaNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwayMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology , Hamburg, Germany; Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens , Athens, GreeceOcean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton , Southampton, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton , Southampton, United KingdomDanish Meteorological Institute , Copenhagen, DenmarkNansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100029, People’s Republic of ChinaMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology , Hamburg, GermanyThe observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5–6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1aBarents-Kara Sea iceEurasiawinterWarm Arctic Cold Eurasia |
| spellingShingle | Rohit Ghosh Elisa Manzini Yongqi Gao Guillaume Gastineau Annalisa Cherchi Claude Frankignoul Yu-Chiao Liang Young-Oh Kwon Lingling Suo Evangelos Tyrlis Jennifer V Mecking Tian Tian Ying Zhang Daniela Matei Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern Environmental Research Letters Barents-Kara Sea ice Eurasia winter Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia |
| title | Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
| title_full | Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
| title_fullStr | Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
| title_full_unstemmed | Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
| title_short | Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
| title_sort | observed winter barents kara sea ice variations induce prominent sub decadal variability and a multi decadal trend in the warm arctic cold eurasia pattern |
| topic | Barents-Kara Sea ice Eurasia winter Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a |
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