Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods
It is almost impossible to predict the future environment today, so instead of using prediction different methods of scenario development are used. Scenario as a hypothetical situation for future environment enables exploration of different possibilities of environment development in the future. Man...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Ministry of Defence of Serbia - Military Publishing House, Belgrade
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Војно дело |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/0042-8426/2017/0042-84261704017M.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797662436605558784 |
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| author | Mitić Vlada M. Dimić Srđan H. Kankaraš Milan S. |
| author_facet | Mitić Vlada M. Dimić Srđan H. Kankaraš Milan S. |
| author_sort | Mitić Vlada M. |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | It is almost impossible to predict the future environment today, so instead of using prediction different methods of scenario development are used. Scenario as a hypothetical situation for future environment enables exploration of different possibilities of environment development in the future. Many methods based on a morphological analysis are used to develop scenarios. Numerous configurations of morphological fields prevent further use of scenarios and a practical description of the various scenarios. It is possible to reduce the number of configuration of morphological fields, classify configuration according to the different scenario classes and determine the representative configuration for the worst and best scenario case for each class of scenarios by integrating the method for scenario development with the decision-making methods. In this way further processing and description of scenarios is enabled, thus fulfilling a practical role of scenarios in the planning process. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T18:59:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-24575f2bc5e44011a556f4ec60cf7adf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0042-8426 2683-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T18:59:09Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | Ministry of Defence of Serbia - Military Publishing House, Belgrade |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Војно дело |
| spelling | doaj.art-24575f2bc5e44011a556f4ec60cf7adf2023-10-10T13:39:38ZengMinistry of Defence of Serbia - Military Publishing House, BelgradeВојно дело0042-84262683-57032017-01-01694173510.5937/vojdelo1704017M0042-84261704017MModel of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methodsMitić Vlada M.0Dimić Srđan H.1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0673-4710Kankaraš Milan S.2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5608-2584Ministry of Defense of the Republic Serbia, Defence Policy Sector, Strategic Planning Department, SerbiaMinistry of Defense of the Republic Serbia, Defence Policy Sector, Strategic Planning Department, SerbiaMinistry of Defense of the Republic Serbia, Defence Policy Sector, Strategic Planning Department, SerbiaIt is almost impossible to predict the future environment today, so instead of using prediction different methods of scenario development are used. Scenario as a hypothetical situation for future environment enables exploration of different possibilities of environment development in the future. Many methods based on a morphological analysis are used to develop scenarios. Numerous configurations of morphological fields prevent further use of scenarios and a practical description of the various scenarios. It is possible to reduce the number of configuration of morphological fields, classify configuration according to the different scenario classes and determine the representative configuration for the worst and best scenario case for each class of scenarios by integrating the method for scenario development with the decision-making methods. In this way further processing and description of scenarios is enabled, thus fulfilling a practical role of scenarios in the planning process.https://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/0042-8426/2017/0042-84261704017M.pdfscenario development methodsmorphological analysisdecision-makingclassificationclusteringk-meansdecision tree |
| spellingShingle | Mitić Vlada M. Dimić Srđan H. Kankaraš Milan S. Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods Војно дело scenario development methods morphological analysis decision-making classification clustering k-means decision tree |
| title | Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods |
| title_full | Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods |
| title_fullStr | Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods |
| title_short | Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods |
| title_sort | model of scenario development in defense planning integration of scenario and decision making methods |
| topic | scenario development methods morphological analysis decision-making classification clustering k-means decision tree |
| url | https://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/0042-8426/2017/0042-84261704017M.pdf |
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