Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future
This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catc...
| Format: | Article |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2007-01-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/468/2007/hess-11-468-2007.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811276443719565312 |
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| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:57:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-246deb796fe9430ca970968924c55c01 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:57:44Z |
| publishDate | 2007-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-246deb796fe9430ca970968924c55c012022-12-22T03:11:27ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382007-01-01111468482Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and futureThis paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/468/2007/hess-11-468-2007.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future |
| title_full | Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future |
| title_fullStr | Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future |
| title_short | Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future |
| title_sort | hydrological catchment modelling past present and future |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/468/2007/hess-11-468-2007.pdf |