Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic produc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Gaziantep University
2009-06-01
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| Series: | Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dergipark.gov.tr/jss/issue/24247/257101?publisher=gantep |
| _version_ | 1797914558532157440 |
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| author | Cevat BİLGİN Ahmet ŞAHBAZ |
| author_facet | Cevat BİLGİN Ahmet ŞAHBAZ |
| author_sort | Cevat BİLGİN |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T12:29:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2474bccfe6b54a8298562cbbf56a3772 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2149-5459 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T12:29:30Z |
| publishDate | 2009-06-01 |
| publisher | Gaziantep University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-2474bccfe6b54a8298562cbbf56a37722023-02-15T16:14:59ZengGaziantep UniversityGaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences2149-54592009-06-0181177198136Causality Relations between Growth and Export in TurkeyCevat BİLGİN0Ahmet ŞAHBAZ1??The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified periodhttp://dergipark.gov.tr/jss/issue/24247/257101?publisher=gantepİhracata dayalı büyüme Johansen Eşbütünleşme Granger nedenselliği dönüştürülmüş Wald testiExport-led growth Johansen co-integration Granger causality modified Wald test |
| spellingShingle | Cevat BİLGİN Ahmet ŞAHBAZ Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences İhracata dayalı büyüme Johansen Eşbütünleşme Granger nedenselliği dönüştürülmüş Wald testi Export-led growth Johansen co-integration Granger causality modified Wald test |
| title | Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey |
| title_full | Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey |
| title_fullStr | Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey |
| title_short | Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey |
| title_sort | causality relations between growth and export in turkey |
| topic | İhracata dayalı büyüme Johansen Eşbütünleşme Granger nedenselliği dönüştürülmüş Wald testi Export-led growth Johansen co-integration Granger causality modified Wald test |
| url | http://dergipark.gov.tr/jss/issue/24247/257101?publisher=gantep |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cevatbilgin causalityrelationsbetweengrowthandexportinturkey AT ahmetsahbaz causalityrelationsbetweengrowthandexportinturkey |