Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and strati...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10212149/?tool=EBI |
| _version_ | 1797818261952266240 |
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| author | Saditt Rocio Robles Colonia Lara Morena Cardeal Rogério Antonio de Oliveira Luzia Aparecida Trinca |
| author_facet | Saditt Rocio Robles Colonia Lara Morena Cardeal Rogério Antonio de Oliveira Luzia Aparecida Trinca |
| author_sort | Saditt Rocio Robles Colonia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:05:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2484cfa8a8104a18aafb3d0ed1c7f121 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:05:28Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-2484cfa8a8104a18aafb3d0ed1c7f1212023-05-28T05:31:08ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01185Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021Saditt Rocio Robles ColoniaLara Morena CardealRogério Antonio de OliveiraLuzia Aparecida TrincaWe estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10212149/?tool=EBI |
| spellingShingle | Saditt Rocio Robles Colonia Lara Morena Cardeal Rogério Antonio de Oliveira Luzia Aparecida Trinca Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 PLoS ONE |
| title | Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
| title_full | Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
| title_short | Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
| title_sort | assessing covid 19 pandemic excess deaths in brazil years 2020 and 2021 |
| url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10212149/?tool=EBI |
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