Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions
Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO _2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012 |
| _version_ | 1797748474073055232 |
|---|---|
| author | C D Jones P Ciais S J Davis P Friedlingstein T Gasser G P Peters J Rogelj D P van Vuuren J G Canadell A Cowie R B Jackson M Jonas E Kriegler E Littleton J A Lowe J Milne G Shrestha P Smith A Torvanger A Wiltshire |
| author_facet | C D Jones P Ciais S J Davis P Friedlingstein T Gasser G P Peters J Rogelj D P van Vuuren J G Canadell A Cowie R B Jackson M Jonas E Kriegler E Littleton J A Lowe J Milne G Shrestha P Smith A Torvanger A Wiltshire |
| author_sort | C D Jones |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO _2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr ^−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr ^−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-24c6293ea3164cbb8cfe75c5ece36672 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:06:18Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-24c6293ea3164cbb8cfe75c5ece366722023-08-09T14:21:09ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-0111909501210.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissionsC D Jones0P Ciais1S J Davis2P Friedlingstein3T Gasser4G P Peters5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7889-8568J Rogelj6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061D P van Vuuren7J G Canadell8A Cowie9R B Jackson10M Jonas11E Kriegler12E Littleton13J A Lowe14J Milne15G Shrestha16P Smith17A Torvanger18A Wiltshire19Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California , Irvine, USACollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter EX4 4QE, UKLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Centre International de Recherche en Environnement et Développement, CNRS-PontsParisTech-EHESS-AgroParisTech-CIRAD, F-94736 Nogent-sur-Marne, FranceCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO), Gaustadalléen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, NorwayEnergy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The NetherlandsGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Research, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, AustraliaNSW Department of Primary Industries, University of New England , Armidale NSW 2351, AustraliaDepartment of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University , Stanford, CA 94305, USAAdvanced Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyUniversity of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKStanford University 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305-2205, USAUS Carbon Cycle Science Program, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC 20006, USAInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen , 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UKCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO), Gaustadalléen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, NorwayMet Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKNatural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO _2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr ^−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr ^−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012climatecarbon cycleearth systemnegative emissionscarbon dioxide removalmitigation scenarios |
| spellingShingle | C D Jones P Ciais S J Davis P Friedlingstein T Gasser G P Peters J Rogelj D P van Vuuren J G Canadell A Cowie R B Jackson M Jonas E Kriegler E Littleton J A Lowe J Milne G Shrestha P Smith A Torvanger A Wiltshire Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions Environmental Research Letters climate carbon cycle earth system negative emissions carbon dioxide removal mitigation scenarios |
| title | Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions |
| title_full | Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions |
| title_short | Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions |
| title_sort | simulating the earth system response to negative emissions |
| topic | climate carbon cycle earth system negative emissions carbon dioxide removal mitigation scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cdjones simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT pciais simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT sjdavis simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT pfriedlingstein simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT tgasser simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT gppeters simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT jrogelj simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT dpvanvuuren simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT jgcanadell simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT acowie simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT rbjackson simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT mjonas simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT ekriegler simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT elittleton simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT jalowe simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT jmilne simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT gshrestha simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT psmith simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT atorvanger simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions AT awiltshire simulatingtheearthsystemresponsetonegativeemissions |