A New Ocean State After Nuclear War
Abstract Nuclear war would produce dire global consequences for humans and our environment. We simulated climate impacts of US‐Russia and India‐Pakistan nuclear wars in an Earth System Model, here, we report on the ocean impacts. Like volcanic eruptions and large forest fires, firestorms from nuclea...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | AGU Advances |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000610 |
| _version_ | 1811219043115335680 |
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| author | Cheryl S. Harrison Tyler Rohr Alice DuVivier Elizabeth A. Maroon Scott Bachman Charles G. Bardeen Joshua Coupe Victoria Garza Ryan Heneghan Nicole S. Lovenduski Philipp Neubauer Victor Rangel Alan Robock Kim Scherrer Samantha Stevenson Owen B. Toon |
| author_facet | Cheryl S. Harrison Tyler Rohr Alice DuVivier Elizabeth A. Maroon Scott Bachman Charles G. Bardeen Joshua Coupe Victoria Garza Ryan Heneghan Nicole S. Lovenduski Philipp Neubauer Victor Rangel Alan Robock Kim Scherrer Samantha Stevenson Owen B. Toon |
| author_sort | Cheryl S. Harrison |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Nuclear war would produce dire global consequences for humans and our environment. We simulated climate impacts of US‐Russia and India‐Pakistan nuclear wars in an Earth System Model, here, we report on the ocean impacts. Like volcanic eruptions and large forest fires, firestorms from nuclear war would transport light‐blocking aerosols to the stratosphere, resulting in global cooling. The ocean responds over two timescales: a rapid cooling event and a long recovery, indicating a hysteresis response of the ocean to global cooling. Surface cooling drives sea ice expansion, enhanced meridional overturning, and intensified ocean vertical mixing that is expanded, deeper, and longer lasting. Phytoplankton production and community structure are highly modified by perturbations to light, temperature, and nutrients, resulting in initial decimation of production, especially at high latitudes. A new physical and biogeochemical ocean state results, characterized by shallower pycnoclines, thermoclines, and nutriclines, ventilated deep water masses, and thicker Arctic sea ice. Persistent changes in nutrient limitation drive a shift in phytoplankton community structure, resulting in increased diatom populations, which in turn increase iron scavenging and iron limitation, especially at high latitudes. In the largest US‐Russia scenario (150 Tg), ocean recovery is likely on the order of decades at the surface and hundreds of years at depth, while changes to Arctic sea‐ice will likely last thousands of years, effectively a “Nuclear Little Ice Age.” Marine ecosystems would be highly disrupted by both the initial perturbation and in the new ocean state, resulting in long‐term, global impacts to ecosystem services such as fisheries. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:20:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-24dd0f7afc3541a8ba2ff4bd87aad3e4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2576-604X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:20:11Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AGU Advances |
| spelling | doaj.art-24dd0f7afc3541a8ba2ff4bd87aad3e42022-12-22T03:42:21ZengWileyAGU Advances2576-604X2022-08-0134n/an/a10.1029/2021AV000610A New Ocean State After Nuclear WarCheryl S. Harrison0Tyler Rohr1Alice DuVivier2Elizabeth A. Maroon3Scott Bachman4Charles G. Bardeen5Joshua Coupe6Victoria Garza7Ryan Heneghan8Nicole S. Lovenduski9Philipp Neubauer10Victor Rangel11Alan Robock12Kim Scherrer13Samantha Stevenson14Owen B. Toon15Department of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USAAustralian Antarctic Partnership Program Hobart TAS AustraliaClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison WI USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAAtmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USADepartment of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USADepartment of Ocean and Coastal Science Center for Computation and Technology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge LA USASchool of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD AustraliaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USADragonfly Data Science Wellington New ZealandDepartment of Aerospace Engineering Texas A&M University College Station TX USADepartment of Environmental Sciences Rutgers University New Brunswick NJ USADepartment of Biological Sciences University of Bergen Bergen NorwayBren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara CA USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USAAbstract Nuclear war would produce dire global consequences for humans and our environment. We simulated climate impacts of US‐Russia and India‐Pakistan nuclear wars in an Earth System Model, here, we report on the ocean impacts. Like volcanic eruptions and large forest fires, firestorms from nuclear war would transport light‐blocking aerosols to the stratosphere, resulting in global cooling. The ocean responds over two timescales: a rapid cooling event and a long recovery, indicating a hysteresis response of the ocean to global cooling. Surface cooling drives sea ice expansion, enhanced meridional overturning, and intensified ocean vertical mixing that is expanded, deeper, and longer lasting. Phytoplankton production and community structure are highly modified by perturbations to light, temperature, and nutrients, resulting in initial decimation of production, especially at high latitudes. A new physical and biogeochemical ocean state results, characterized by shallower pycnoclines, thermoclines, and nutriclines, ventilated deep water masses, and thicker Arctic sea ice. Persistent changes in nutrient limitation drive a shift in phytoplankton community structure, resulting in increased diatom populations, which in turn increase iron scavenging and iron limitation, especially at high latitudes. In the largest US‐Russia scenario (150 Tg), ocean recovery is likely on the order of decades at the surface and hundreds of years at depth, while changes to Arctic sea‐ice will likely last thousands of years, effectively a “Nuclear Little Ice Age.” Marine ecosystems would be highly disrupted by both the initial perturbation and in the new ocean state, resulting in long‐term, global impacts to ecosystem services such as fisheries.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000610nuclear warextreme climatehysteresisAMOCiron scavengingArctic |
| spellingShingle | Cheryl S. Harrison Tyler Rohr Alice DuVivier Elizabeth A. Maroon Scott Bachman Charles G. Bardeen Joshua Coupe Victoria Garza Ryan Heneghan Nicole S. Lovenduski Philipp Neubauer Victor Rangel Alan Robock Kim Scherrer Samantha Stevenson Owen B. Toon A New Ocean State After Nuclear War AGU Advances nuclear war extreme climate hysteresis AMOC iron scavenging Arctic |
| title | A New Ocean State After Nuclear War |
| title_full | A New Ocean State After Nuclear War |
| title_fullStr | A New Ocean State After Nuclear War |
| title_full_unstemmed | A New Ocean State After Nuclear War |
| title_short | A New Ocean State After Nuclear War |
| title_sort | new ocean state after nuclear war |
| topic | nuclear war extreme climate hysteresis AMOC iron scavenging Arctic |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000610 |
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