A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China
Background Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods The...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692 |
| _version_ | 1797677328617177088 |
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| author | Yi Zhang David J. Muscatello Zhidong Cao Abrar A. Chughtai Valentina Costantino Daitao Zhang Peng Yang Quanyi Wang C. Raina MacIntyre |
| author_facet | Yi Zhang David J. Muscatello Zhidong Cao Abrar A. Chughtai Valentina Costantino Daitao Zhang Peng Yang Quanyi Wang C. Raina MacIntyre |
| author_sort | Yi Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible–exposed–infected–recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T22:43:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-24e38c9aa5ce4cbebf1a46926fbe112d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2164-5515 2164-554X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T22:43:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| spelling | doaj.art-24e38c9aa5ce4cbebf1a46926fbe112d2023-09-22T08:45:35ZengTaylor & Francis GroupHuman Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics2164-55152164-554X2020-07-011671685169010.1080/21645515.2019.17056921705692A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, ChinaYi Zhang0David J. Muscatello1Zhidong Cao2Abrar A. Chughtai3Valentina Costantino4Daitao Zhang5Peng Yang6Quanyi Wang7C. Raina MacIntyre8Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control & Beijing Research Center for Preventive MedicineThe University of New South WalesChinese Academy of SciencesThe University of New South WalesThe University of New South WalesBeijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control & Beijing Research Center for Preventive MedicineBeijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control & Beijing Research Center for Preventive MedicineBeijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control & Beijing Research Center for Preventive MedicineThe University of New South WalesBackground Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible–exposed–infected–recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692influenzavaccinationmodelchildrenchina |
| spellingShingle | Yi Zhang David J. Muscatello Zhidong Cao Abrar A. Chughtai Valentina Costantino Daitao Zhang Peng Yang Quanyi Wang C. Raina MacIntyre A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics influenza vaccination model children china |
| title | A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China |
| title_full | A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China |
| title_fullStr | A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China |
| title_short | A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China |
| title_sort | model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in beijing china |
| topic | influenza vaccination model children china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692 |
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