Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda
We investigate the short-term effects of air temperature, rainfall, and socioeconomic indicators on malaria incidence across Rwanda and Uganda from 2002 to 2011. Delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature and rainfall data are estimated using generalised additive mixed models with a distributed la...
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| Format: | Article |
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PAGEPress Publications
2016-03-01
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| Series: | Geospatial Health |
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| Online Access: | http://geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/379 |
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| author | Felipe J. Colón-González Adrian M. Tompkins Riccardo Biondi Jean Pierre Bizimana Didacus Bambaiha Namanya |
| author_facet | Felipe J. Colón-González Adrian M. Tompkins Riccardo Biondi Jean Pierre Bizimana Didacus Bambaiha Namanya |
| author_sort | Felipe J. Colón-González |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We investigate the short-term effects of air temperature, rainfall, and socioeconomic indicators on malaria incidence across Rwanda and Uganda from 2002 to 2011. Delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature and rainfall data are estimated using generalised additive mixed models with a distributed lag nonlinear specification. A time series cross-validation algorithm is implemented to select the best subset of socioeconomic predictors and to define the degree of smoothing of the weather variables. Our findings show that trends in malaria incidence agree well with variations in both temperature and rainfall in both countries, although factors other than climate seem to play an important role too. The estimated short-term effects of air temperature and precipitation are nonlinear, in agreement with previous research and the ecology of the disease. These effects are robust to the effects of temporal correlation. The effects of socioeconomic data are difficult to ascertain and require further evaluation with longer time series. Climate-informed models had lower error estimates compared to models with no climatic information in 77 and 60% of the districts in Rwanda and Uganda, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of using climatic information in the analysis of malaria surveillance data, and show potential for the development of climateinformed malaria early warning systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T04:14:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-24fa3d0f7f65454caff62b45f59a50b0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1827-1987 1970-7096 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T04:14:02Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | PAGEPress Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geospatial Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-24fa3d0f7f65454caff62b45f59a50b02022-12-21T18:00:25ZengPAGEPress PublicationsGeospatial Health1827-19871970-70962016-03-01111s10.4081/gh.2016.379346Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and UgandaFelipe J. Colón-González0Adrian M. Tompkins1Riccardo Biondi2Jean Pierre Bizimana3Didacus Bambaiha Namanya4Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, NorwichAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, TriesteAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, GrazCentre for Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing, University of Rwanda, ButareMinistry of Health, KampalaWe investigate the short-term effects of air temperature, rainfall, and socioeconomic indicators on malaria incidence across Rwanda and Uganda from 2002 to 2011. Delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature and rainfall data are estimated using generalised additive mixed models with a distributed lag nonlinear specification. A time series cross-validation algorithm is implemented to select the best subset of socioeconomic predictors and to define the degree of smoothing of the weather variables. Our findings show that trends in malaria incidence agree well with variations in both temperature and rainfall in both countries, although factors other than climate seem to play an important role too. The estimated short-term effects of air temperature and precipitation are nonlinear, in agreement with previous research and the ecology of the disease. These effects are robust to the effects of temporal correlation. The effects of socioeconomic data are difficult to ascertain and require further evaluation with longer time series. Climate-informed models had lower error estimates compared to models with no climatic information in 77 and 60% of the districts in Rwanda and Uganda, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of using climatic information in the analysis of malaria surveillance data, and show potential for the development of climateinformed malaria early warning systems.http://geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/379MalariaWeather effectsStatistical modellingHealth |
| spellingShingle | Felipe J. Colón-González Adrian M. Tompkins Riccardo Biondi Jean Pierre Bizimana Didacus Bambaiha Namanya Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda Geospatial Health Malaria Weather effects Statistical modelling Health |
| title | Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda |
| title_full | Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda |
| title_short | Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda |
| title_sort | assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence an epidemiological study across rwanda and uganda |
| topic | Malaria Weather effects Statistical modelling Health |
| url | http://geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/379 |
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