Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond
Abstract We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 |
| _version_ | 1818016896259194880 |
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| author | M. D. Palmer J. M. Gregory M. Bagge D. Calvert J. M. Hagedoorn T. Howard V. Klemann J. A. Lowe C. D. Roberts A. B. A. Slangen G. Spada |
| author_facet | M. D. Palmer J. M. Gregory M. Bagge D. Calvert J. M. Hagedoorn T. Howard V. Klemann J. A. Lowe C. D. Roberts A. B. A. Slangen G. Spada |
| author_sort | M. D. Palmer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:19:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2526b45952e04d0699de7dd4994e0ff2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:19:31Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-2526b45952e04d0699de7dd4994e0ff22022-12-22T02:06:12ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772020-09-0189n/an/a10.1029/2019EF001413Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and BeyondM. D. Palmer0J. M. Gregory1M. Bagge2D. Calvert3J. M. Hagedoorn4T. Howard5V. Klemann6J. A. Lowe7C. D. Roberts8A. B. A. Slangen9G. Spada10Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Potsdam GermanyMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKUniversity of Potsdam Potsdam GermanyMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKHelmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Potsdam GermanyMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKRoyal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research Texel The NetherlandsUniversità degli Studi di Urbino “Carlo Bo” Urbino ItalyAbstract We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413climate changeCMIP5 modelsRCP scenariossea‐level projectionstide gauge observations |
| spellingShingle | M. D. Palmer J. M. Gregory M. Bagge D. Calvert J. M. Hagedoorn T. Howard V. Klemann J. A. Lowe C. D. Roberts A. B. A. Slangen G. Spada Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond Earth's Future climate change CMIP5 models RCP scenarios sea‐level projections tide gauge observations |
| title | Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond |
| title_full | Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond |
| title_short | Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond |
| title_sort | exploring the drivers of global and local sea level change over the 21st century and beyond |
| topic | climate change CMIP5 models RCP scenarios sea‐level projections tide gauge observations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 |
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