Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints
In our globalizing world, the geographical locations of food production and consumption are becoming increasingly disconnected, which increases reliance on external resources and their trade. We quantified to what extent water and land constraints limit countries’ capacities, at present and by 2050,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046 |
| _version_ | 1797748408980602880 |
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| author | Marianela Fader Dieter Gerten Michael Krause Wolfgang Lucht Wolfgang Cramer |
| author_facet | Marianela Fader Dieter Gerten Michael Krause Wolfgang Lucht Wolfgang Cramer |
| author_sort | Marianela Fader |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In our globalizing world, the geographical locations of food production and consumption are becoming increasingly disconnected, which increases reliance on external resources and their trade. We quantified to what extent water and land constraints limit countries’ capacities, at present and by 2050, to produce on their own territory the crop products that they currently import from other countries. Scenarios of increased crop productivity and water use, cropland expansion (excluding areas prioritized for other uses) and population change are accounted for. We found that currently 16% of the world population use the opportunities of international trade to cover their demand for agricultural products. Population change may strongly increase the number of people depending on ex situ land and water resources up to about 5.2 billion (51% of world population) in the SRES A2r scenario. International trade will thus have to intensify if population growth is not accompanied by dietary change towards less resource-intensive products, by cropland expansion, or by productivity improvements, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. Up to 1.3 billion people may be at risk of food insecurity in 2050 in present low-income economies (mainly in Africa), if their economic development does not allow them to afford productivity increases, cropland expansion and/or imports from other countries. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:04:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-253cae77a815413abb28ddc56743adde |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:04:19Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-253cae77a815413abb28ddc56743adde2023-08-09T14:25:21ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018101404610.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraintsMarianela Fader0Dieter Gerten1Michael Krause2Wolfgang Lucht3Wolfgang Cramer4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegraphenberg, Potsdam D-14473, Germany; Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix-Marseille Université , Bâtiment Villemin, Europole de l’Arbois—BP 80, F-13545 Aix-en-Provence cedex 04, FrancePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegraphenberg, Potsdam D-14473, GermanyAustrian Federal Forest Joint Stock Company , Pummergasse 10-12, A-3002 Purkersdorf, AustriaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegraphenberg, Potsdam D-14473, Germany; Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , Unter den Linden 6, Berlin D-10099, GermanyInstitut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix-Marseille Université , Bâtiment Villemin, Europole de l’Arbois—BP 80, F-13545 Aix-en-Provence cedex 04, FranceIn our globalizing world, the geographical locations of food production and consumption are becoming increasingly disconnected, which increases reliance on external resources and their trade. We quantified to what extent water and land constraints limit countries’ capacities, at present and by 2050, to produce on their own territory the crop products that they currently import from other countries. Scenarios of increased crop productivity and water use, cropland expansion (excluding areas prioritized for other uses) and population change are accounted for. We found that currently 16% of the world population use the opportunities of international trade to cover their demand for agricultural products. Population change may strongly increase the number of people depending on ex situ land and water resources up to about 5.2 billion (51% of world population) in the SRES A2r scenario. International trade will thus have to intensify if population growth is not accompanied by dietary change towards less resource-intensive products, by cropland expansion, or by productivity improvements, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. Up to 1.3 billion people may be at risk of food insecurity in 2050 in present low-income economies (mainly in Africa), if their economic development does not allow them to afford productivity increases, cropland expansion and/or imports from other countries.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046commaaratedplanetary boundariesagriculturewater productivityvirtual watertrade |
| spellingShingle | Marianela Fader Dieter Gerten Michael Krause Wolfgang Lucht Wolfgang Cramer Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints Environmental Research Letters commaarated planetary boundaries agriculture water productivity virtual water trade |
| title | Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints |
| title_full | Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints |
| title_fullStr | Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints |
| title_short | Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints |
| title_sort | spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints |
| topic | commaarated planetary boundaries agriculture water productivity virtual water trade |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014046 |
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