A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea
The extreme significant wave height predictions often neglect within-year wave climate variability and wave directionality. Depending on a geographical region, local wind patterns and year climate variability could have an influence on the long-term prediction of waves. The Adriatic Sea having two d...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/1/42 |
| _version_ | 1797440384139264000 |
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| author | Antonio Mikulić Joško Parunov |
| author_facet | Antonio Mikulić Joško Parunov |
| author_sort | Antonio Mikulić |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The extreme significant wave height predictions often neglect within-year wave climate variability and wave directionality. Depending on a geographical region, local wind patterns and year climate variability could have an influence on the long-term prediction of waves. The Adriatic Sea having two dominant wind patterns of different characteristics, <i>Bura</i> and <i>Jugo</i>, is a great example for the case study. The 23-year hindcast wave data used in the presented study is extracted from the WorldWaves database. Based on wind and wave data, annual extreme significant wave heights generated by different wind patterns and for different months are fitted by Gumbel distribution using maximum likelihood estimation. Combined long-term extremes are then predicted by calculating system probability. It was found that considering the wave directionality, and especially the seasonality of wave climate, leads to a larger prediction of extreme significant wave heights. The extreme value prediction considering wave directionality on average yields 4% larger significant wave heights, while considering within-year climate variability leads to, on average, 8% larger extremes compared to the predictions when both effects are neglected. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:07:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-255056dc1e7d4cd0bac5b020245e69e2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:07:23Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-255056dc1e7d4cd0bac5b020245e69e22023-11-30T22:56:22ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122022-12-011114210.3390/jmse11010042A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic SeaAntonio Mikulić0Joško Parunov1Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb, Ivana Lučića 5, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb, Ivana Lučića 5, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaThe extreme significant wave height predictions often neglect within-year wave climate variability and wave directionality. Depending on a geographical region, local wind patterns and year climate variability could have an influence on the long-term prediction of waves. The Adriatic Sea having two dominant wind patterns of different characteristics, <i>Bura</i> and <i>Jugo</i>, is a great example for the case study. The 23-year hindcast wave data used in the presented study is extracted from the WorldWaves database. Based on wind and wave data, annual extreme significant wave heights generated by different wind patterns and for different months are fitted by Gumbel distribution using maximum likelihood estimation. Combined long-term extremes are then predicted by calculating system probability. It was found that considering the wave directionality, and especially the seasonality of wave climate, leads to a larger prediction of extreme significant wave heights. The extreme value prediction considering wave directionality on average yields 4% larger significant wave heights, while considering within-year climate variability leads to, on average, 8% larger extremes compared to the predictions when both effects are neglected.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/1/42significant wave heightlong-term probabilitywind directionwave directionality effectsseasonal variability effectsmonthly maxima |
| spellingShingle | Antonio Mikulić Joško Parunov A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea Journal of Marine Science and Engineering significant wave height long-term probability wind direction wave directionality effects seasonal variability effects monthly maxima |
| title | A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea |
| title_full | A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea |
| title_fullStr | A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea |
| title_short | A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea |
| title_sort | wave directionality and a within year wave climate variability effects on the long term extreme significant wave heights prediction in the adriatic sea |
| topic | significant wave height long-term probability wind direction wave directionality effects seasonal variability effects monthly maxima |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/1/42 |
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