The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution
Abstract Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the s...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9228 |
| _version_ | 1811213137111678976 |
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| author | Fressia N. Ames‐Martínez Isolda Luna‐Vega Gregg Dieringer Ernesto C. Rodríguez‐Ramírez |
| author_facet | Fressia N. Ames‐Martínez Isolda Luna‐Vega Gregg Dieringer Ernesto C. Rodríguez‐Ramírez |
| author_sort | Fressia N. Ames‐Martínez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981–2010), and future (2040–2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3‐7.0 & SSP 5‐8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high‐impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north‐facing slopes. For isolated and difficult‐to‐access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict‐tree species, which deserve further conservation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:40:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-25a3682638e64742b1dad4ae58802ec9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T05:40:42Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-25a3682638e64742b1dad4ae58802ec92022-12-22T03:45:39ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582022-08-01128n/an/a10.1002/ece3.9228The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distributionFressia N. Ames‐Martínez0Isolda Luna‐Vega1Gregg Dieringer2Ernesto C. Rodríguez‐Ramírez3Laboratorio de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular Universidad Continental, Urbanización San Antonio Huancayo PeruLaboratorio de Biogeografía y Sistemática Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Ciudad de México MexicoDepartment of Natural Sciences Northwest Missouri State University Maryville Missouri USALaboratorio de Dendrocronología Universidad Continental, Urbanización San Antonio Huancayo PeruAbstract Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981–2010), and future (2040–2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3‐7.0 & SSP 5‐8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high‐impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north‐facing slopes. For isolated and difficult‐to‐access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict‐tree species, which deserve further conservation.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9228ecological refugiaFagus mexicanapalaeoclimaticspecies distribution modelsuitability habitat |
| spellingShingle | Fressia N. Ames‐Martínez Isolda Luna‐Vega Gregg Dieringer Ernesto C. Rodríguez‐Ramírez The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution Ecology and Evolution ecological refugia Fagus mexicana palaeoclimatic species distribution model suitability habitat |
| title | The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution |
| title_full | The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution |
| title_fullStr | The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution |
| title_short | The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution |
| title_sort | effect of climate change on arcto tertiary mexican beech forests exploring their past present and future distribution |
| topic | ecological refugia Fagus mexicana palaeoclimatic species distribution model suitability habitat |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9228 |
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