Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections
Abstract Over the tropical land surface, accurate estimates of future changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are crucial for ecological sustainability, but remain highly uncertain. Here we develop a series of emergent constraints (ECs) by using historical and future outputs fro...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-07-01
|
| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00419-x |
| _version_ | 1797778952437104640 |
|---|---|
| author | Boyuan Zhu Yongzhou Cheng Xuyue Hu Yuanfang Chai Wouter R. Berghuijs Alistair G. L. Borthwick Louise Slater |
| author_facet | Boyuan Zhu Yongzhou Cheng Xuyue Hu Yuanfang Chai Wouter R. Berghuijs Alistair G. L. Borthwick Louise Slater |
| author_sort | Boyuan Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Over the tropical land surface, accurate estimates of future changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are crucial for ecological sustainability, but remain highly uncertain. Here we develop a series of emergent constraints (ECs) by using historical and future outputs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models under the four basic Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Results show that the temperature sensitivity to precipitation during 2015–2100, which varies substantially in the original CMIP6 outputs, becomes systematically negative across SSPs after application of the EC, with absolute values between −1.10 °C mm−1 day and −3.52 °C mm−1 day, and with uncertainties reduced by 9.4% to 41.4%. The trend in tropical land-surface evapotranspiration, which was increasing by 0.292 mm yr−1 in the original CMIP6 model outputs, becomes significantly negative (−0.469 mm yr−1) after applying the constraint. Moreover, we find a significant increase of 58.7% in the leaf area index growth rate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:23:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-262d230bd6e8484e9a508b055955ef2c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:23:59Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-262d230bd6e8484e9a508b055955ef2c2023-07-16T11:13:25ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-07-01611910.1038/s41612-023-00419-xConstrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projectionsBoyuan Zhu0Yongzhou Cheng1Xuyue Hu2Yuanfang Chai3Wouter R. Berghuijs4Alistair G. L. Borthwick5Louise Slater6School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & TechnologySchool of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & TechnologySchool of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversityDepartment of Earth Sciences, Free University AmsterdamSchool of Engineering, The University of EdinburghSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of OxfordAbstract Over the tropical land surface, accurate estimates of future changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are crucial for ecological sustainability, but remain highly uncertain. Here we develop a series of emergent constraints (ECs) by using historical and future outputs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models under the four basic Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Results show that the temperature sensitivity to precipitation during 2015–2100, which varies substantially in the original CMIP6 outputs, becomes systematically negative across SSPs after application of the EC, with absolute values between −1.10 °C mm−1 day and −3.52 °C mm−1 day, and with uncertainties reduced by 9.4% to 41.4%. The trend in tropical land-surface evapotranspiration, which was increasing by 0.292 mm yr−1 in the original CMIP6 model outputs, becomes significantly negative (−0.469 mm yr−1) after applying the constraint. Moreover, we find a significant increase of 58.7% in the leaf area index growth rate.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00419-x |
| spellingShingle | Boyuan Zhu Yongzhou Cheng Xuyue Hu Yuanfang Chai Wouter R. Berghuijs Alistair G. L. Borthwick Louise Slater Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections |
| title_full | Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections |
| title_fullStr | Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections |
| title_short | Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections |
| title_sort | constrained tropical land temperature precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in cmip6 projections |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00419-x |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT boyuanzhu constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections AT yongzhoucheng constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections AT xuyuehu constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections AT yuanfangchai constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections AT wouterrberghuijs constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections AT alistairglborthwick constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections AT louiseslater constrainedtropicallandtemperatureprecipitationsensitivityrevealsdecreasingevapotranspirationandfastervegetationgreeningincmip6projections |