Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning
Abstract This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model to determine the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning. This retrospective observational cohort study included 724 patients with acute paraquat poisoning whose clinical data were collected within 2...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50722-z |
| _version_ | 1797349979365310464 |
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| author | Guo Tang Zhen Jiang Lingjie Xu Ying Yang Sha Yang Rong Yao |
| author_facet | Guo Tang Zhen Jiang Lingjie Xu Ying Yang Sha Yang Rong Yao |
| author_sort | Guo Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model to determine the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning. This retrospective observational cohort study included 724 patients with acute paraquat poisoning whose clinical data were collected within 24 h of admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (7/3 ratio). In the training cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression models were used for data dimension reduction and feature selection. Multivariate logistic regression was used to generate a predictive nomogram for in-hospital mortality. The prediction model was assessed for both the training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, decreased level of consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale score < 15), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, carbon dioxide combining power, and paraquat plasma concentrations at admission were identified as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning. The calibration curves, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves indicated that the model had a good predictive performance. It can be used on admission to the emergency department to predict mortality and facilitate early risk stratification and actionable measures in clinical practice after further external validation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T12:38:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-265cf605a75b4da9ab50b166ac8b6c45 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T12:38:09Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-265cf605a75b4da9ab50b166ac8b6c452024-01-21T12:19:39ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-01-0114111010.1038/s41598-023-50722-zDevelopment and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoningGuo Tang0Zhen Jiang1Lingjie Xu2Ying Yang3Sha Yang4Rong Yao5Emergency Medicine Laboratory and the Department of Emergency, West China Hospital, Sichuan UniversityEmergency Medicine Laboratory and the Department of Emergency, West China Hospital, Sichuan UniversityEmergency Medicine Laboratory and the Department of Emergency, West China Hospital, Sichuan UniversityEmergency Medicine Laboratory and the Department of Emergency, West China Hospital, Sichuan UniversityEmergency Medicine Laboratory and the Department of Emergency, West China Hospital, Sichuan UniversityEmergency Medicine Laboratory and the Department of Emergency, West China Hospital, Sichuan UniversityAbstract This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model to determine the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning. This retrospective observational cohort study included 724 patients with acute paraquat poisoning whose clinical data were collected within 24 h of admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (7/3 ratio). In the training cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression models were used for data dimension reduction and feature selection. Multivariate logistic regression was used to generate a predictive nomogram for in-hospital mortality. The prediction model was assessed for both the training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, decreased level of consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale score < 15), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, carbon dioxide combining power, and paraquat plasma concentrations at admission were identified as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning. The calibration curves, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves indicated that the model had a good predictive performance. It can be used on admission to the emergency department to predict mortality and facilitate early risk stratification and actionable measures in clinical practice after further external validation.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50722-z |
| spellingShingle | Guo Tang Zhen Jiang Lingjie Xu Ying Yang Sha Yang Rong Yao Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning Scientific Reports |
| title | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning |
| title_full | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning |
| title_short | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning |
| title_sort | development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting in hospital mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50722-z |
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