The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand
The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of causal factors relationship over the changes in future scenario management under the sustainability policy of Thailand by creating a model with validity called “Partial Least Square Path Modeling based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Ave...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EconJournals
2022-09-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/11643 |
| _version_ | 1797919078094995456 |
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| author | Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon |
| author_facet | Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon |
| author_sort | Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of causal factors relationship over the changes in future scenario management under the sustainability policy of Thailand by creating a model with validity called “Partial Least Square Path Modeling based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Observed Variables (PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx). The results showed that the three latent variables (economic, social, and environmental) were found to be causal related. From the PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx (1,1,1), it is characterized as the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) with highest performance, where mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) equals to 1.55%, and root mean square error (RMSE) equals to 1.97% upon comparing them to other models. If the government implements this model to define a new scenario policy by stipulating future total energy consumption (2020-2039) below the national carrying capacity, with minimal error correction mechanism and great impact on model relationship, the future CO2 emission (2020-2039) is expected to drop a growth rate continuously. When a new scenario policy is determined, CO2 emission was found to increase at a growth rate of only 8.95% (2020/2039) or by 78.99 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039) going below carrying capacity set off at 90.05 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039). The result is clearly different in the absence of the new scenario policy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T13:39:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-267c2616561a4a65bdc32736aa0fba4b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2146-4553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T13:39:51Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | EconJournals |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy |
| spelling | doaj.art-267c2616561a4a65bdc32736aa0fba4b2023-02-15T16:11:13ZengEconJournalsInternational Journal of Energy Economics and Policy2146-45532022-09-0112510.32479/ijeep.11643The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of ThailandPruethsan Sutthichaimethee0Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon1Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Salaya, Thailand,Graduate School of Business and Advanced Technology Management, Assumption University, Bangkok, Thailand.The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of causal factors relationship over the changes in future scenario management under the sustainability policy of Thailand by creating a model with validity called “Partial Least Square Path Modeling based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Observed Variables (PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx). The results showed that the three latent variables (economic, social, and environmental) were found to be causal related. From the PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx (1,1,1), it is characterized as the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) with highest performance, where mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) equals to 1.55%, and root mean square error (RMSE) equals to 1.97% upon comparing them to other models. If the government implements this model to define a new scenario policy by stipulating future total energy consumption (2020-2039) below the national carrying capacity, with minimal error correction mechanism and great impact on model relationship, the future CO2 emission (2020-2039) is expected to drop a growth rate continuously. When a new scenario policy is determined, CO2 emission was found to increase at a growth rate of only 8.95% (2020/2039) or by 78.99 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039) going below carrying capacity set off at 90.05 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039). The result is clearly different in the absence of the new scenario policy.https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/11643Sustainability policy, new scenario policy, Spurious model, Carrying Capacity, Short-long term. |
| spellingShingle | Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Sustainability policy, new scenario policy, Spurious model, Carrying Capacity, Short-long term. |
| title | The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand |
| title_full | The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand |
| title_short | The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand |
| title_sort | impact of causal factors relationship over the changes in future scenario management under the sustainability policy of thailand |
| topic | Sustainability policy, new scenario policy, Spurious model, Carrying Capacity, Short-long term. |
| url | https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/11643 |
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