Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context
Summary: Background: Uptake of the COVID-19 bivalent booster vaccine (targeting the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 of the Omicron variant) among eligible residents of New York City (NYC) has been modest and declining. Assessing the impact of improved population-level boost...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Americas |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X23001291 |
| _version_ | 1827890929166450688 |
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| author | Abhishek Pandey Meagan C. Fitzpatrick Seyed M. Moghadas Thomas N. Vilches Charles Ko Ashwin Vasan Alison P. Galvani |
| author_facet | Abhishek Pandey Meagan C. Fitzpatrick Seyed M. Moghadas Thomas N. Vilches Charles Ko Ashwin Vasan Alison P. Galvani |
| author_sort | Abhishek Pandey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Uptake of the COVID-19 bivalent booster vaccine (targeting the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 of the Omicron variant) among eligible residents of New York City (NYC) has been modest and declining. Assessing the impact of improved population-level booster coverage with bivalent vaccines in NYC can help inform investment towards vaccination and potential cost-savings. Methods: We calibrated an agent-based model of disease transmission to confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in NYC and simulated it to project outcomes under two scenarios. In the base case scenario, we assumed that vaccination continued with the average daily rate of 92 vaccine doses per 100,000 administered during December 2022. In the counterfactual scenario, we modeled a high-uptake scenario between January 1, 2023 and March 31, 2023, with an average daily rate of 296 vaccine doses per 100,000 population that increased bivalent coverage in NYC to match the age-specific influenza vaccine coverage of the 2020–2021 season. Vaccination rate outside the campaign duration remained the same as the base case scenario. Findings: Compared to the base case, the high-uptake scenario averted 88,274 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 77,097–100,342) cases, and prevented 2,917 (95% CI: 2,557–3,267) hospitalizations between January 1 through the end of June 2023. Averted outcomes resulted in net savings of $217.2 (95% CI: 190.0–242.2) million in direct healthcare costs. We estimated that the high-uptake scenario would avert 72,879 (95% CI: 63,894–82,228) days of student absenteeism from schools due to COVID-19 illness. Interpretation: Our results illustrate the continued benefits of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing severe health outcomes, averting healthcare costs, and maintaining educational continuity in NYC. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NIH, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), NSF, The Commonwealth Fund, and The Notsew Orm Sands Foundation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:16:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-268b7a00aacd47bfab9091f2dbde48a4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2667-193X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:16:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Americas |
| spelling | doaj.art-268b7a00aacd47bfab9091f2dbde48a42023-07-29T04:36:06ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Americas2667-193X2023-08-0124100555Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in contextAbhishek Pandey0Meagan C. Fitzpatrick1Seyed M. Moghadas2Thomas N. Vilches3Charles Ko4Ashwin Vasan5Alison P. Galvani6Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USACenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USAAgent-Based Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Agent-Based Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaBureau of Epidemiology Services, Integrated Surveillance and Data, New York City Department of Health & Mental Hygiene, NY, USAOffice of Commissioner, New York City Department of Health & Mental Hygiene, NY, USA; Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, NY, USACenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Corresponding author.Summary: Background: Uptake of the COVID-19 bivalent booster vaccine (targeting the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 of the Omicron variant) among eligible residents of New York City (NYC) has been modest and declining. Assessing the impact of improved population-level booster coverage with bivalent vaccines in NYC can help inform investment towards vaccination and potential cost-savings. Methods: We calibrated an agent-based model of disease transmission to confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in NYC and simulated it to project outcomes under two scenarios. In the base case scenario, we assumed that vaccination continued with the average daily rate of 92 vaccine doses per 100,000 administered during December 2022. In the counterfactual scenario, we modeled a high-uptake scenario between January 1, 2023 and March 31, 2023, with an average daily rate of 296 vaccine doses per 100,000 population that increased bivalent coverage in NYC to match the age-specific influenza vaccine coverage of the 2020–2021 season. Vaccination rate outside the campaign duration remained the same as the base case scenario. Findings: Compared to the base case, the high-uptake scenario averted 88,274 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 77,097–100,342) cases, and prevented 2,917 (95% CI: 2,557–3,267) hospitalizations between January 1 through the end of June 2023. Averted outcomes resulted in net savings of $217.2 (95% CI: 190.0–242.2) million in direct healthcare costs. We estimated that the high-uptake scenario would avert 72,879 (95% CI: 63,894–82,228) days of student absenteeism from schools due to COVID-19 illness. Interpretation: Our results illustrate the continued benefits of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing severe health outcomes, averting healthcare costs, and maintaining educational continuity in NYC. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NIH, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), NSF, The Commonwealth Fund, and The Notsew Orm Sands Foundation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X23001291Bivalent boosterNew York CityCOVID-19School absenteeism |
| spellingShingle | Abhishek Pandey Meagan C. Fitzpatrick Seyed M. Moghadas Thomas N. Vilches Charles Ko Ashwin Vasan Alison P. Galvani Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context The Lancet Regional Health. Americas Bivalent booster New York City COVID-19 School absenteeism |
| title | Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context |
| title_full | Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context |
| title_short | Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York CityResearch in context |
| title_sort | modelling the impact of a high uptake bivalent booster scenario on the covid 19 burden and healthcare costs in new york cityresearch in context |
| topic | Bivalent booster New York City COVID-19 School absenteeism |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X23001291 |
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