A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making
Abstract There are many modeling works that aim to explain people’s behaviors that violate classical economic theories. However, these models often do not take into full account the multi-stage nature of real-life problems and people’s tendency in solving complicated problems sequentially. In this w...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50529-y |
| _version_ | 1797363286242492416 |
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| author | Ho Ka Chan Taro Toyoizumi |
| author_facet | Ho Ka Chan Taro Toyoizumi |
| author_sort | Ho Ka Chan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract There are many modeling works that aim to explain people’s behaviors that violate classical economic theories. However, these models often do not take into full account the multi-stage nature of real-life problems and people’s tendency in solving complicated problems sequentially. In this work, we propose a descriptive decision-making model for multi-stage problems with perceived post-decision information. In the model, decisions are chosen based on an entity which we call the ‘anticipated surprise’. The reference point is determined by the expected value of the possible outcomes, which we assume to be dynamically changing during the mental simulation of a sequence of events. We illustrate how our formalism can help us understand prominent economic paradoxes and gambling behaviors that involve multi-stage or sequential planning. We also discuss how neuroscience findings, like prediction error signals and introspective neuronal replay, as well as psychological theories like affective forecasting, are related to the features in our model. This provides hints for future experiments to investigate the role of these entities in decision-making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:19:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-276e2172488c4bb0a009123dff4db256 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:19:10Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-276e2172488c4bb0a009123dff4db2562024-01-07T12:26:54ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-01-0114111710.1038/s41598-023-50529-yA multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-makingHo Ka Chan0Taro Toyoizumi1Laboratory for Neural Computation and Adaptation, RIKEN Center for Brain ScienceLaboratory for Neural Computation and Adaptation, RIKEN Center for Brain ScienceAbstract There are many modeling works that aim to explain people’s behaviors that violate classical economic theories. However, these models often do not take into full account the multi-stage nature of real-life problems and people’s tendency in solving complicated problems sequentially. In this work, we propose a descriptive decision-making model for multi-stage problems with perceived post-decision information. In the model, decisions are chosen based on an entity which we call the ‘anticipated surprise’. The reference point is determined by the expected value of the possible outcomes, which we assume to be dynamically changing during the mental simulation of a sequence of events. We illustrate how our formalism can help us understand prominent economic paradoxes and gambling behaviors that involve multi-stage or sequential planning. We also discuss how neuroscience findings, like prediction error signals and introspective neuronal replay, as well as psychological theories like affective forecasting, are related to the features in our model. This provides hints for future experiments to investigate the role of these entities in decision-making.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50529-y |
| spellingShingle | Ho Ka Chan Taro Toyoizumi A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making Scientific Reports |
| title | A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making |
| title_full | A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making |
| title_fullStr | A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making |
| title_full_unstemmed | A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making |
| title_short | A multi-stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision-making |
| title_sort | multi stage anticipated surprise model with dynamic expectation for economic decision making |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50529-y |
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