Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting
Heat supply is socially and economically important in our country. In this regard, high-quality monitoring and planning of the development of heat supply systems are a strategic vector of scientific research. This paper is focused on the studies demonstrating how to choose a methodological approach...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
EDP Sciences
2018-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20183903005 |
| _version_ | 1819295779662069760 |
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| author | Dobrovolskaya Tatyana Stennikov Valery |
| author_facet | Dobrovolskaya Tatyana Stennikov Valery |
| author_sort | Dobrovolskaya Tatyana |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Heat supply is socially and economically important in our country. In this regard, high-quality monitoring and planning of the development of heat supply systems are a strategic vector of scientific research. This paper is focused on the studies demonstrating how to choose a methodological approach to describe changes in heat consumption in the retrospective. The change in heat consumption is described using multiple regression models. In the first part of the paper, the parameters for the regression model are determined and a statistical analysis of the obtained model is performed. In the second part of the paper, to eliminate the multicollinearity of the regression equation, the number of dependent variables in the model is reduced. A statistical analysis of the new regression model and the exponential regression model are carried out. The heat consumption values obtained using these models are compared with the statistical data. The conclusions about the quality of the obtained regression models are made. In the third part of the article, we make a forecast of heat consumption in the medium term by using a linear regression model and an exponential model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T04:47:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-27761d83603e452282df10ae38f597c1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2267-1242 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T04:47:38Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | E3S Web of Conferences |
| spelling | doaj.art-27761d83603e452282df10ae38f597c12022-12-21T17:14:38ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422018-01-01390300510.1051/e3sconf/20183903005e3sconf_mmmaosdphs2018_03005Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecastingDobrovolskaya TatyanaStennikov ValeryHeat supply is socially and economically important in our country. In this regard, high-quality monitoring and planning of the development of heat supply systems are a strategic vector of scientific research. This paper is focused on the studies demonstrating how to choose a methodological approach to describe changes in heat consumption in the retrospective. The change in heat consumption is described using multiple regression models. In the first part of the paper, the parameters for the regression model are determined and a statistical analysis of the obtained model is performed. In the second part of the paper, to eliminate the multicollinearity of the regression equation, the number of dependent variables in the model is reduced. A statistical analysis of the new regression model and the exponential regression model are carried out. The heat consumption values obtained using these models are compared with the statistical data. The conclusions about the quality of the obtained regression models are made. In the third part of the article, we make a forecast of heat consumption in the medium term by using a linear regression model and an exponential model.https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20183903005 |
| spellingShingle | Dobrovolskaya Tatyana Stennikov Valery Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting E3S Web of Conferences |
| title | Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting |
| title_full | Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting |
| title_short | Regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting |
| title_sort | regression model for heat consumption monitoring and forecasting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20183903005 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dobrovolskayatatyana regressionmodelforheatconsumptionmonitoringandforecasting AT stennikovvalery regressionmodelforheatconsumptionmonitoringandforecasting |