Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation
Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2017-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/3/40 |
| _version_ | 1818946549014593536 |
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| author | Scott A. Stephens Robert G. Bell Judy Lawrence |
| author_facet | Scott A. Stephens Robert G. Bell Judy Lawrence |
| author_sort | Scott A. Stephens |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T08:16:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-27775f86568e41d58bd0f8d115eef422 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T08:16:46Z |
| publishDate | 2017-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-27775f86568e41d58bd0f8d115eef4222022-12-21T19:47:06ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122017-08-01534010.3390/jmse5030040jmse5030040Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal AdaptationScott A. Stephens0Robert G. Bell1Judy Lawrence2National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton 3251, New ZealandNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton 3251, New ZealandNew Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New ZealandCoastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/3/40sea-level risecoastal hazard assessmentuncertaintycoastal adaptationclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Scott A. Stephens Robert G. Bell Judy Lawrence Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation Journal of Marine Science and Engineering sea-level rise coastal hazard assessment uncertainty coastal adaptation climate change |
| title | Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation |
| title_full | Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation |
| title_fullStr | Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation |
| title_short | Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation |
| title_sort | applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation |
| topic | sea-level rise coastal hazard assessment uncertainty coastal adaptation climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/3/40 |
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