Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route
The China–Australia Route, which serves as the southern economic corridor of the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, bears great importance in safeguarding maritime transportation operations. This route plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and efficiency of such activities. To pre-assess the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-09-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/9/1722 |
| _version_ | 1797579354934345728 |
|---|---|
| author | Zheng Chang Xuzhuo He Hanwen Fan Wei Guan Linsheng He |
| author_facet | Zheng Chang Xuzhuo He Hanwen Fan Wei Guan Linsheng He |
| author_sort | Zheng Chang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The China–Australia Route, which serves as the southern economic corridor of the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, bears great importance in safeguarding maritime transportation operations. This route plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and efficiency of such activities. To pre-assess the risks of this route, this paper presents a two-stage analytical framework that combines fault tree analysis and Bayesian network for evaluating the occurrence likelihood of risk of transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the China–Australia Route. In the first stage, our study involved the identification of 22 risk influencing factors drawn from a comprehensive review of pertinent literature and an in-depth analysis of accident reports. These identified factors were then utilized as basic events to construct a fault tree. Later, we applied an expert comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy set theory, and by introducing voting mechanism into expert opinions, the prior probability of basic events was calculated. In the second stage, a fault tree was transformed into a Bayesian network, which overcame the deficiency that the structure and conditional probability table of the Bayesian network find difficult to determine. Consequently, the employment of the Bayesian network architecture was applied to forecast the likelihood of LNG maritime transport along the China–Australia shipping pathway. The probability importance and critical importance of each basic event was calculated through an importance analysis. The development of a risk matrix was achieved by considering the two primary dimensions of frequency and impact, which were subsequently utilized to categorize all relevant risk factors into high, moderate, or low risk categories. This allowed for effective risk mitigation and prevention strategies to be implemented. Finally, assuming that the final risk occurs, we calculated the posterior probability of the basic event to diagnose the risk. The research findings indicate that the primary reasons for the risk of transporting LNG on the China–Australia Route are the impact of natural forces and epidemics, piracy and terrorist attacks, and the risk of LNG explosions. In the final section, we provide suggestions and risk control measures based on the research results to reduce the occurrence of risks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:34:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-27d776d74e164c5aab8f9618bc03229c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:34:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-27d776d74e164c5aab8f9618bc03229c2023-11-19T11:26:30ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122023-09-01119172210.3390/jmse11091722Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia RouteZheng Chang0Xuzhuo He1Hanwen Fan2Wei Guan3Linsheng He4College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, ChinaCollege of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, ChinaCollege of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, ChinaNavigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, ChinaShandong Shipping Tanker Co., Qingdao 266000, ChinaThe China–Australia Route, which serves as the southern economic corridor of the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, bears great importance in safeguarding maritime transportation operations. This route plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and efficiency of such activities. To pre-assess the risks of this route, this paper presents a two-stage analytical framework that combines fault tree analysis and Bayesian network for evaluating the occurrence likelihood of risk of transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the China–Australia Route. In the first stage, our study involved the identification of 22 risk influencing factors drawn from a comprehensive review of pertinent literature and an in-depth analysis of accident reports. These identified factors were then utilized as basic events to construct a fault tree. Later, we applied an expert comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy set theory, and by introducing voting mechanism into expert opinions, the prior probability of basic events was calculated. In the second stage, a fault tree was transformed into a Bayesian network, which overcame the deficiency that the structure and conditional probability table of the Bayesian network find difficult to determine. Consequently, the employment of the Bayesian network architecture was applied to forecast the likelihood of LNG maritime transport along the China–Australia shipping pathway. The probability importance and critical importance of each basic event was calculated through an importance analysis. The development of a risk matrix was achieved by considering the two primary dimensions of frequency and impact, which were subsequently utilized to categorize all relevant risk factors into high, moderate, or low risk categories. This allowed for effective risk mitigation and prevention strategies to be implemented. Finally, assuming that the final risk occurs, we calculated the posterior probability of the basic event to diagnose the risk. The research findings indicate that the primary reasons for the risk of transporting LNG on the China–Australia Route are the impact of natural forces and epidemics, piracy and terrorist attacks, and the risk of LNG explosions. In the final section, we provide suggestions and risk control measures based on the research results to reduce the occurrence of risks.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/9/1722risk assessmentmaritime transportfault tree analysisBayesian networkLiquid Natural Gas (LNG) |
| spellingShingle | Zheng Chang Xuzhuo He Hanwen Fan Wei Guan Linsheng He Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route Journal of Marine Science and Engineering risk assessment maritime transport fault tree analysis Bayesian network Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) |
| title | Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route |
| title_full | Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route |
| title_fullStr | Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route |
| title_full_unstemmed | Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route |
| title_short | Leverage Bayesian Network and Fault Tree Method on Risk Assessment of LNG Maritime Transport Shipping Routes: Application to the China–Australia Route |
| title_sort | leverage bayesian network and fault tree method on risk assessment of lng maritime transport shipping routes application to the china australia route |
| topic | risk assessment maritime transport fault tree analysis Bayesian network Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/11/9/1722 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhengchang leveragebayesiannetworkandfaulttreemethodonriskassessmentoflngmaritimetransportshippingroutesapplicationtothechinaaustraliaroute AT xuzhuohe leveragebayesiannetworkandfaulttreemethodonriskassessmentoflngmaritimetransportshippingroutesapplicationtothechinaaustraliaroute AT hanwenfan leveragebayesiannetworkandfaulttreemethodonriskassessmentoflngmaritimetransportshippingroutesapplicationtothechinaaustraliaroute AT weiguan leveragebayesiannetworkandfaulttreemethodonriskassessmentoflngmaritimetransportshippingroutesapplicationtothechinaaustraliaroute AT linshenghe leveragebayesiannetworkandfaulttreemethodonriskassessmentoflngmaritimetransportshippingroutesapplicationtothechinaaustraliaroute |