| Summary: | The study area was the Hulunbuir Plateau in northeastern China, based on a natural resource element observation study. The assessment of the spatial and temporal variation of soil erosion is crucial for implementing environmental management in the fragile ecosystem of the Hulunbuir Plateau. The study provides an interesting basis for soil erosion control on the Hulunbuir Plateau and other areas with similar climatic conditions, with the aim of providing sound data to support environmental protection policies in the study area. In this study, the spatial and temporal variations in soil erosion in the region from 2000 to 2020 were quantitatively assessed using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Furthermore, the patch-generating land use simulation model predicted future soil erosion. Land use prediction data were examined using Kappa coefficients. The prediction of future land use types using CMIP6 data and natural social data in the PLUS model were used to predict soil erosion for different future scenarios. The results showed that the soil erosion rate on the Hulunbuir Plateau showed a significant increasing trend in time from 2000 to 2020. Spatially, soil erosion increases gradually from the west to the east. Soil erosion occurs mainly on grasslands, while cultivated lands show a significant increasing trend by 2020. Slope erosion occurs mainly in areas between 15° and 35°. From 2020 to 2050, soil erosion will increase significantly due to increased precipitation. The soil erosion in SSP2–4.5 is better than the other scenarios.
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