Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective
Year to year change in weather poses serious threats to agriculture globally, especially in developing countries. Global climate models simulate an increase in global temperature between 2.9 to 5.5 °C till 2060, and crop production is highly vulnerable to climate warming trends. Extreme temperature...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Agriculture |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/2/97 |
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| author | Adnan Arshad Muhammad Ali Raza Yue Zhang Lizhen Zhang Xuejiao Wang Mukhtar Ahmed Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman |
| author_facet | Adnan Arshad Muhammad Ali Raza Yue Zhang Lizhen Zhang Xuejiao Wang Mukhtar Ahmed Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman |
| author_sort | Adnan Arshad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Year to year change in weather poses serious threats to agriculture globally, especially in developing countries. Global climate models simulate an increase in global temperature between 2.9 to 5.5 °C till 2060, and crop production is highly vulnerable to climate warming trends. Extreme temperature causes a significant reduction in crop yields by negatively regulating the crop phenology. Therefore, to evaluate warming impact on cotton (<i>Gossypium hirsutum</i> L.) production and management practices, we quantified agrometeorological data of 30 years by applying multiple crop modelling tools to compute the expected rise in temperature, impact of crop phenology, yield loss, provision of agrometeorology-services, agronomic technologies, and adaptation to climate-smart agriculture. Model projections of 15 agrometeorology stations showed that the growing duration of the sowing-boll opening and sowing-harvesting stages was reduced by 2.30 to 5.66 days decade<sup>−1</sup> and 4.23 days decade<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, in Pakistan. Temperature rise in China also advanced the planting dates, sowing emergence, 3–5 leaves, budding anthesis, full-bloom, cleft-boll, boll-opening, and boll-opening filling by 24.4, 26.2, 24.8, 23.3, 22.6, 15.8, 14.6, 5.4, 2.9, and 8.0 days. Furthermore, present findings exhibited that the warming effect of sowing-harvest time was observed 2.16 days premature, and delayed for 8.2, 2.4, and 5.3 days in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s in China. APSIM-cotton quantification revealed that the sowing, emergence, flowering, and maturity stages were negatively correlated with temperature −2.03, −1.93, −1.09, and −0.42 days °C<sup>−1</sup> on average, respectively. This study also provided insight into the adaptation of smart and better cotton by improving agrotechnological services. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:45:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2859b8d6de8c4043ac27bced0501a0b4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0472 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:45:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj.art-2859b8d6de8c4043ac27bced0501a0b42023-12-03T14:35:01ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722021-01-011129710.3390/agriculture11020097Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional PerspectiveAdnan Arshad0Muhammad Ali Raza1Yue Zhang2Lizhen Zhang3Xuejiao Wang4Mukhtar Ahmed5Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman6College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Rd. No.2, Haidian District, Beijing 100193, ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 625014, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Rd. No.2, Haidian District, Beijing 100193, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Rd. No.2, Haidian District, Beijing 100193, ChinaXinjiang Agro-meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, ChinaDepartment of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7070, SE-750 07 Uppsala, SwedenInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES) University Bonn, 53115 Bonn, GermanyYear to year change in weather poses serious threats to agriculture globally, especially in developing countries. Global climate models simulate an increase in global temperature between 2.9 to 5.5 °C till 2060, and crop production is highly vulnerable to climate warming trends. Extreme temperature causes a significant reduction in crop yields by negatively regulating the crop phenology. Therefore, to evaluate warming impact on cotton (<i>Gossypium hirsutum</i> L.) production and management practices, we quantified agrometeorological data of 30 years by applying multiple crop modelling tools to compute the expected rise in temperature, impact of crop phenology, yield loss, provision of agrometeorology-services, agronomic technologies, and adaptation to climate-smart agriculture. Model projections of 15 agrometeorology stations showed that the growing duration of the sowing-boll opening and sowing-harvesting stages was reduced by 2.30 to 5.66 days decade<sup>−1</sup> and 4.23 days decade<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, in Pakistan. Temperature rise in China also advanced the planting dates, sowing emergence, 3–5 leaves, budding anthesis, full-bloom, cleft-boll, boll-opening, and boll-opening filling by 24.4, 26.2, 24.8, 23.3, 22.6, 15.8, 14.6, 5.4, 2.9, and 8.0 days. Furthermore, present findings exhibited that the warming effect of sowing-harvest time was observed 2.16 days premature, and delayed for 8.2, 2.4, and 5.3 days in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s in China. APSIM-cotton quantification revealed that the sowing, emergence, flowering, and maturity stages were negatively correlated with temperature −2.03, −1.93, −1.09, and −0.42 days °C<sup>−1</sup> on average, respectively. This study also provided insight into the adaptation of smart and better cotton by improving agrotechnological services.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/2/97agrometeorologytemperature increasecotton phenologyclimate-smart managementAPSIM-cotton crop modelling |
| spellingShingle | Adnan Arshad Muhammad Ali Raza Yue Zhang Lizhen Zhang Xuejiao Wang Mukhtar Ahmed Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective Agriculture agrometeorology temperature increase cotton phenology climate-smart management APSIM-cotton crop modelling |
| title | Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective |
| title_sort | impact of climate warming on cotton growth and yields in china and pakistan a regional perspective |
| topic | agrometeorology temperature increase cotton phenology climate-smart management APSIM-cotton crop modelling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/2/97 |
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