Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness
Background Influenza has been identified as a trigger for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) with prior studies demonstrating that influenza vaccination may decrease risk of stroke and MI. Methods and Results We used data from the New York Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Coop...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016213 |
| _version_ | 1811341501736681472 |
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| author | Erin R. Kulick Michelle Canning Neal S. Parikh Mitchell S. V. Elkind Amelia K. Boehme |
| author_facet | Erin R. Kulick Michelle Canning Neal S. Parikh Mitchell S. V. Elkind Amelia K. Boehme |
| author_sort | Erin R. Kulick |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Influenza has been identified as a trigger for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) with prior studies demonstrating that influenza vaccination may decrease risk of stroke and MI. Methods and Results We used data from the New York Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System to evaluate whether annual variability in influenza vaccination effectiveness (VE) would be associated with cardiovascular events. Daily and monthly counts of outpatient and inpatient visits for influenza‐like illness (ILI), stroke, and MI were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD‐9) codes; VE data for each year are publicly available. We identified pertinent lags between ILI, stroke, and MI using prewhitening cross‐correlation functions and applied them to autoregressive integrated moving average time series regression models. Time series forecasting systems assessed correlations among ILI, stroke, and MI, and the effect of VE on these relationships. Cross‐correlation functions indicated stroke events increased 1 month after increases in ILI rates; MIs increased immediately. Accounting for seasonality and lag, peaks in ILI rates were significantly related to peaks in stroke (P=0.04) and MI (P=0.01). Time forecasting analyses indicated no relationship between VE and cardiovascular events. Conclusions We identified that seasonality of cardiovascular events may be associated with seasonality in ILI, though VE did not modify this relationship. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:56:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2860d168e1c4488e8eb62b5526e18e16 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2047-9980 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T18:56:09Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease |
| spelling | doaj.art-2860d168e1c4488e8eb62b5526e18e162022-12-22T02:34:13ZengWileyJournal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease2047-99802020-10-0192010.1161/JAHA.120.016213Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine EffectivenessErin R. Kulick0Michelle Canning1Neal S. Parikh2Mitchell S. V. Elkind3Amelia K. Boehme4Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Temple University College of Public Health Philadelphia PADepartment of Epidemiology Mailman School of Public Health Columbia University New York NYDepartment of Neurology Cornell University New York NYDepartment of Epidemiology Mailman School of Public Health Columbia University New York NYDepartment of Epidemiology Mailman School of Public Health Columbia University New York NYBackground Influenza has been identified as a trigger for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) with prior studies demonstrating that influenza vaccination may decrease risk of stroke and MI. Methods and Results We used data from the New York Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System to evaluate whether annual variability in influenza vaccination effectiveness (VE) would be associated with cardiovascular events. Daily and monthly counts of outpatient and inpatient visits for influenza‐like illness (ILI), stroke, and MI were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD‐9) codes; VE data for each year are publicly available. We identified pertinent lags between ILI, stroke, and MI using prewhitening cross‐correlation functions and applied them to autoregressive integrated moving average time series regression models. Time series forecasting systems assessed correlations among ILI, stroke, and MI, and the effect of VE on these relationships. Cross‐correlation functions indicated stroke events increased 1 month after increases in ILI rates; MIs increased immediately. Accounting for seasonality and lag, peaks in ILI rates were significantly related to peaks in stroke (P=0.04) and MI (P=0.01). Time forecasting analyses indicated no relationship between VE and cardiovascular events. Conclusions We identified that seasonality of cardiovascular events may be associated with seasonality in ILI, though VE did not modify this relationship.https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016213cardiovascular diseaseheart attackinfluenzastrokevaccine effectiveness |
| spellingShingle | Erin R. Kulick Michelle Canning Neal S. Parikh Mitchell S. V. Elkind Amelia K. Boehme Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease cardiovascular disease heart attack influenza stroke vaccine effectiveness |
| title | Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness |
| title_full | Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness |
| title_fullStr | Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness |
| title_short | Seasonality of Influenza‐Like‐Illness and Acute Cardiovascular Events Are Related Regardless of Vaccine Effectiveness |
| title_sort | seasonality of influenza like illness and acute cardiovascular events are related regardless of vaccine effectiveness |
| topic | cardiovascular disease heart attack influenza stroke vaccine effectiveness |
| url | https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016213 |
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