Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios
Climate change impact on the hydrology of the Betwa river basin, located in the semi-arid region of Central India, was assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), driven by hypothetical scenarios and Model of Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) Global Circulation M...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
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| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/3/969 |
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| author | Sujeet Desai D. K. Singh Adlul Islam A. Sarangi |
| author_facet | Sujeet Desai D. K. Singh Adlul Islam A. Sarangi |
| author_sort | Sujeet Desai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change impact on the hydrology of the Betwa river basin, located in the semi-arid region of Central India, was assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), driven by hypothetical scenarios and Model of Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) Global Circulation Model projections. SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site streamflow data. The coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio and percent bias during calibration and validation period varied from 0.83–0.92, 0.6–0.91, 0.3–0.63 and −19.8–19.3, respectively. MIROC5 projections revealed an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.7–0.9 °C, 1.2–2.0 °C and 1.1–3.1 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Rainfall is likely to increase in the range of 0.4–9.1% and 5.7–15.3% during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated 3.8–29% and 12–48% increase in mean annual surface runoff during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, an increase of 0.2–3.0%, 2.6–4.2% and 3.5–6.2% in mean annual evapotranspiration is likely during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. These results could be used for developing suitable climate change adaptation plans for the river basin. HIGHLIGHTS
SWAT was calibrated at multi-site gauging stations in a semi-arid river basin.;
Hypothetical climate change scenarios of Rainfall, Temperature and CO2 was used to assess the basin response.;
Surface runoff was sensitive to rainfall change and ET was sensitive to CO2 change.;
Surface runoff and ET are projected to increase during the 2050s and 2080s under RCP scenarios.;
Climate change adaptation measures were suggested.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T03:38:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2875b3e8c0c541e9b745ebfdacf9374c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T03:38:13Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-2875b3e8c0c541e9b745ebfdacf9374c2022-12-21T20:37:19ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542021-05-0112396999610.2166/wcc.2020.287287Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenariosSujeet Desai0D. K. Singh1Adlul Islam2A. Sarangi3 ICAR-Central Coastal Agricultural Research Institute, Goa 403402, India Division of Agricultural Engineering, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India Natural Resource Management Division, ICAR, Krishi Anusandhan Bhavan-II, New Delhi 110012, India Water Technology Centre, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India Climate change impact on the hydrology of the Betwa river basin, located in the semi-arid region of Central India, was assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), driven by hypothetical scenarios and Model of Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) Global Circulation Model projections. SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site streamflow data. The coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio and percent bias during calibration and validation period varied from 0.83–0.92, 0.6–0.91, 0.3–0.63 and −19.8–19.3, respectively. MIROC5 projections revealed an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.7–0.9 °C, 1.2–2.0 °C and 1.1–3.1 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Rainfall is likely to increase in the range of 0.4–9.1% and 5.7–15.3% during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated 3.8–29% and 12–48% increase in mean annual surface runoff during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, an increase of 0.2–3.0%, 2.6–4.2% and 3.5–6.2% in mean annual evapotranspiration is likely during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. These results could be used for developing suitable climate change adaptation plans for the river basin. HIGHLIGHTS SWAT was calibrated at multi-site gauging stations in a semi-arid river basin.; Hypothetical climate change scenarios of Rainfall, Temperature and CO2 was used to assess the basin response.; Surface runoff was sensitive to rainfall change and ET was sensitive to CO2 change.; Surface runoff and ET are projected to increase during the 2050s and 2080s under RCP scenarios.; Climate change adaptation measures were suggested.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/3/969adaptation measuresclimate changeevapotranspirationmiroc5surface runoffswat |
| spellingShingle | Sujeet Desai D. K. Singh Adlul Islam A. Sarangi Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios Journal of Water and Climate Change adaptation measures climate change evapotranspiration miroc5 surface runoff swat |
| title | Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi arid river basin of india under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios |
| topic | adaptation measures climate change evapotranspiration miroc5 surface runoff swat |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/3/969 |
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