Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years
Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Pre...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024001 |
| _version_ | 1797748333491519488 |
|---|---|
| author | T M Osborne T R Wheeler |
| author_facet | T M Osborne T R Wheeler |
| author_sort | T M Osborne |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:04:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-28cf3a2ef5ff485da82c8fef3731c976 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:04:21Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-28cf3a2ef5ff485da82c8fef3731c9762023-08-09T14:26:03ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018202400110.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024001Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 yearsT M Osborne0T R Wheeler1National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading , UK; Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading , UKWalker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading , UK; Department of Agriculture, University of Reading , UKLow variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/02400188.20.df92.70.Kbcrops climate variability |
| spellingShingle | T M Osborne T R Wheeler Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years Environmental Research Letters 88.20.df 92.70.Kb crops climate variability |
| title | Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years |
| title_full | Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years |
| title_fullStr | Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years |
| title_short | Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years |
| title_sort | evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years |
| topic | 88.20.df 92.70.Kb crops climate variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024001 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tmosborne evidenceforaclimatesignalintrendsofglobalcropyieldvariabilityoverthepast50years AT trwheeler evidenceforaclimatesignalintrendsofglobalcropyieldvariabilityoverthepast50years |