Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting
This article is an introductory work towards a larger research framework relative to <italic>Scientific Prediction</italic>. It is a mixed between science and philosophy of science, therefore we can talk about <italic>Experimental Philosophy of Science</italic>. As a first re...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IEEE
2021-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9502699/ |
| _version_ | 1818600002272886784 |
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| author | Nadir Maaroufi Mehdi Najib Mohamed Bakhouya |
| author_facet | Nadir Maaroufi Mehdi Najib Mohamed Bakhouya |
| author_sort | Nadir Maaroufi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This article is an introductory work towards a larger research framework relative to <italic>Scientific Prediction</italic>. It is a mixed between science and philosophy of science, therefore we can talk about <italic>Experimental Philosophy of Science</italic>. As a first result, we introduce a new forecasting method based on image completion, named <italic>Forecasting Method by Image Inpainting (FM2I)</italic>. In fact, time series forecasting is transformed into fully images- and signal-based processing procedures. After transforming a time series data into its corresponding image, the problem of <italic>data forecasting</italic> becomes essentially a problem of <italic>image inpainting</italic>, i.e., completing missing data in the image. Extensive experimental evaluation was conducted using the shortest series of the dataset proposed by the well-known M3-competition. Results show that FM2I, despite still being in its infancy, represents an efficient and robust tool for short-term time series forecasting. It has achieved prominent results in terms of accuracy and outperforms the best M3 methods. We have also investigated the effectiveness of the FM2I against the Smyl method, the winner of the M4 competition. Using the same category of shortest series, results show a close accuracy compared to the Smyl method. The FM2I is also able to generate ensemble data forecasts, which contain the best and more accurate forecast compared to existing and considered methods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T12:28:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-28d1cafe65004bc88f7f168acbfda9fd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T12:28:33Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj.art-28d1cafe65004bc88f7f168acbfda9fd2022-12-21T22:31:45ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362021-01-01911991811993810.1109/ACCESS.2021.31017189502699Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series ForecastingNadir Maaroufi0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-3545Mehdi Najib1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9980-0240Mohamed Bakhouya2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8558-5471TICLab, College of Engineering and Architecture, International University of Rabat, Sala Al Jadida, MoroccoTICLab, College of Engineering and Architecture, International University of Rabat, Sala Al Jadida, MoroccoLERMA Lab, College of Engineering and Architecture, International University of Rabat, Sala Al Jadida, MoroccoThis article is an introductory work towards a larger research framework relative to <italic>Scientific Prediction</italic>. It is a mixed between science and philosophy of science, therefore we can talk about <italic>Experimental Philosophy of Science</italic>. As a first result, we introduce a new forecasting method based on image completion, named <italic>Forecasting Method by Image Inpainting (FM2I)</italic>. In fact, time series forecasting is transformed into fully images- and signal-based processing procedures. After transforming a time series data into its corresponding image, the problem of <italic>data forecasting</italic> becomes essentially a problem of <italic>image inpainting</italic>, i.e., completing missing data in the image. Extensive experimental evaluation was conducted using the shortest series of the dataset proposed by the well-known M3-competition. Results show that FM2I, despite still being in its infancy, represents an efficient and robust tool for short-term time series forecasting. It has achieved prominent results in terms of accuracy and outperforms the best M3 methods. We have also investigated the effectiveness of the FM2I against the Smyl method, the winner of the M4 competition. Using the same category of shortest series, results show a close accuracy compared to the Smyl method. The FM2I is also able to generate ensemble data forecasts, which contain the best and more accurate forecast compared to existing and considered methods.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9502699/Scientific prediction and experimental philosophy of scienceextensive structural realismbridging philosophytime series forecastingfully integrated modeling and processing frameworkensemble data autocorrelation forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Nadir Maaroufi Mehdi Najib Mohamed Bakhouya Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting IEEE Access Scientific prediction and experimental philosophy of science extensive structural realism bridging philosophy time series forecasting fully integrated modeling and processing framework ensemble data autocorrelation forecasting |
| title | Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting |
| title_full | Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting |
| title_short | Predicting the Future is Like Completing a Painting: Towards a Novel Method for Time-Series Forecasting |
| title_sort | predicting the future is like completing a painting towards a novel method for time series forecasting |
| topic | Scientific prediction and experimental philosophy of science extensive structural realism bridging philosophy time series forecasting fully integrated modeling and processing framework ensemble data autocorrelation forecasting |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9502699/ |
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