Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics
We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2016-03-01
|
| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436515000857 |
| _version_ | 1818904748534792192 |
|---|---|
| author | Alhaji Cherif Kamal Barley Marcel Hurtado |
| author_facet | Alhaji Cherif Kamal Barley Marcel Hurtado |
| author_sort | Alhaji Cherif |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T21:12:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2905e3119ac34cba8deef56dc080c9b8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 1878-0067 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T21:12:22Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-2905e3119ac34cba8deef56dc080c9b82022-12-21T20:05:27ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43651878-00672016-03-0114C455310.1016/j.epidem.2015.09.003Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemicsAlhaji Cherif0Kamal Barley1Marcel Hurtado2Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UKSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United StatesSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United StatesWe formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436515000857Behavioural changeEpidemic spreadingDisease transmissionReactive responseInfectious disease |
| spellingShingle | Alhaji Cherif Kamal Barley Marcel Hurtado Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics Epidemics Behavioural change Epidemic spreading Disease transmission Reactive response Infectious disease |
| title | Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics |
| title_full | Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics |
| title_fullStr | Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics |
| title_short | Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics |
| title_sort | homo psychologicus reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics |
| topic | Behavioural change Epidemic spreading Disease transmission Reactive response Infectious disease |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436515000857 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alhajicherif homopsychologicusreactionarybehaviouralaspectsofepidemics AT kamalbarley homopsychologicusreactionarybehaviouralaspectsofepidemics AT marcelhurtado homopsychologicusreactionarybehaviouralaspectsofepidemics |