Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean
Abstract The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is an endangered marine fish species which can be adversely affected by the fishing activities of the industrial purse seine fleet targeting tropical tuna. Tuna tend to aggregate around all types of floating objects, including whale sharks. We analyzed and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5884 |
| _version_ | 1819298002917916672 |
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| author | José C. Báez Ana Márcia Barbosa Pedro Pascual María Lourdes Ramos Francisco Abascal |
| author_facet | José C. Báez Ana Márcia Barbosa Pedro Pascual María Lourdes Ramos Francisco Abascal |
| author_sort | José C. Báez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is an endangered marine fish species which can be adversely affected by the fishing activities of the industrial purse seine fleet targeting tropical tuna. Tuna tend to aggregate around all types of floating objects, including whale sharks. We analyzed and modeled the spatial distribution and environmental preferences of whale sharks based on the presence and absence data from fishing observations in the Atlantic Ocean. We used a thorough multialgorithm analysis, based on a new presence–absence dataset, and endeavored to follow the most recent recommendations on best practices in species distribution modeling. First, we selected a subset of relevant variables using a generalized linear model that addressed multicollinearity, statistical errors, and information criteria. We then used the selected variables to build a model ensemble including 19 different algorithms. After eliminating models with insufficient performance, we assessed the potential distribution of whale sharks using the mean of the predictions of the selected models. We also assessed the variance among the predictions of different algorithms, in order to identify areas with the highest model consensus. The results show that several coastal regions and warm shallow currents, such as the Gulf Stream and the Canary and Benguela currents, are the most suitable areas for whale sharks under current environmental conditions. Future environmental projections for the Atlantic Ocean suggest that some of the suitable regions will shift northward, but current concentration areas will continue to be suitable for whale shark, although with less productivity, which could have negative consequences for conservation of the species. We discuss the implications of these predictions for the conservation and management of this charismatic marine species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T05:22:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-29733ae99c63473287a311bf915c60f5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T05:22:59Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-29733ae99c63473287a311bf915c60f52022-12-21T17:13:25ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582020-01-0110117518410.1002/ece3.5884Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic OceanJosé C. Báez0Ana Márcia Barbosa1Pedro Pascual2María Lourdes Ramos3Francisco Abascal4Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga Fuengirola Málaga SpainFaculdade de Ciências CICGE ‐ Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo‐Espaciais Observatório Astronómico Prof. Manuel de Barros Universidade do Porto Vila Nova de Gaia PortugalInstituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Canarias Santa Cruz de Tenerife SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Canarias Santa Cruz de Tenerife SpainInstituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Canarias Santa Cruz de Tenerife SpainAbstract The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is an endangered marine fish species which can be adversely affected by the fishing activities of the industrial purse seine fleet targeting tropical tuna. Tuna tend to aggregate around all types of floating objects, including whale sharks. We analyzed and modeled the spatial distribution and environmental preferences of whale sharks based on the presence and absence data from fishing observations in the Atlantic Ocean. We used a thorough multialgorithm analysis, based on a new presence–absence dataset, and endeavored to follow the most recent recommendations on best practices in species distribution modeling. First, we selected a subset of relevant variables using a generalized linear model that addressed multicollinearity, statistical errors, and information criteria. We then used the selected variables to build a model ensemble including 19 different algorithms. After eliminating models with insufficient performance, we assessed the potential distribution of whale sharks using the mean of the predictions of the selected models. We also assessed the variance among the predictions of different algorithms, in order to identify areas with the highest model consensus. The results show that several coastal regions and warm shallow currents, such as the Gulf Stream and the Canary and Benguela currents, are the most suitable areas for whale sharks under current environmental conditions. Future environmental projections for the Atlantic Ocean suggest that some of the suitable regions will shift northward, but current concentration areas will continue to be suitable for whale shark, although with less productivity, which could have negative consequences for conservation of the species. We discuss the implications of these predictions for the conservation and management of this charismatic marine species.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5884Chondrichthyesclimatic changemarine speciessharksspecies distribution modelingtropical areas |
| spellingShingle | José C. Báez Ana Márcia Barbosa Pedro Pascual María Lourdes Ramos Francisco Abascal Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean Ecology and Evolution Chondrichthyes climatic change marine species sharks species distribution modeling tropical areas |
| title | Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean |
| title_full | Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean |
| title_fullStr | Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean |
| title_short | Ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the Atlantic Ocean |
| title_sort | ensemble modeling of the potential distribution of the whale shark in the atlantic ocean |
| topic | Chondrichthyes climatic change marine species sharks species distribution modeling tropical areas |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5884 |
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