Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models
This paper provides new insights into the causal effects of the enlargement of the European Union (EU) on patent performance. The study focuses on the new EU member states (EU-13) and accession is considered as an intervention whose causal effect is estimated by the causal impact method using a Baye...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Forecasting |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/4/47 |
| _version_ | 1797458562364997632 |
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| author | Agnieszka Kleszcz Krzysztof Rusek |
| author_facet | Agnieszka Kleszcz Krzysztof Rusek |
| author_sort | Agnieszka Kleszcz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper provides new insights into the causal effects of the enlargement of the European Union (EU) on patent performance. The study focuses on the new EU member states (EU-13) and accession is considered as an intervention whose causal effect is estimated by the causal impact method using a Bayesian structural time-series model (proposed by Google). The empirical results based on data collected from the OECD database from 1985–2017 point towards a conclusion that joining the EU has had a significant impact on patent performance in Romania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Croatia and Lithuania, although in the latter two countries, the impact was negative. For the rest of the EU-13 countries, there is no significant effect on patent performance. Whether the EU accession effect is significant or not, the EU-13 are far behind the EU-15 (countries which entered the EU before 2004) in terms of patent performance. The majority of patents (98.66%) are assigned to the EU-15, with just 1.34% of assignees belonging to the EU-13. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T16:39:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2994bf1f97ae490dbc5a859ef5636bad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-9394 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T16:39:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forecasting |
| spelling | doaj.art-2994bf1f97ae490dbc5a859ef5636bad2023-11-24T14:52:55ZengMDPI AGForecasting2571-93942022-10-014486688110.3390/forecast4040047Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series ModelsAgnieszka Kleszcz0Krzysztof Rusek1Faculty of Natural Sciences, Jan Kochanowski University, 25-369 Kielce, PolandInstitute of Telecommunications, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Krakow, PolandThis paper provides new insights into the causal effects of the enlargement of the European Union (EU) on patent performance. The study focuses on the new EU member states (EU-13) and accession is considered as an intervention whose causal effect is estimated by the causal impact method using a Bayesian structural time-series model (proposed by Google). The empirical results based on data collected from the OECD database from 1985–2017 point towards a conclusion that joining the EU has had a significant impact on patent performance in Romania, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Croatia and Lithuania, although in the latter two countries, the impact was negative. For the rest of the EU-13 countries, there is no significant effect on patent performance. Whether the EU accession effect is significant or not, the EU-13 are far behind the EU-15 (countries which entered the EU before 2004) in terms of patent performance. The majority of patents (98.66%) are assigned to the EU-15, with just 1.34% of assignees belonging to the EU-13.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/4/47causal analysisEuropean UnionpatentsinnovationsBayesian structural time-series models |
| spellingShingle | Agnieszka Kleszcz Krzysztof Rusek Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models Forecasting causal analysis European Union patents innovations Bayesian structural time-series models |
| title | Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models |
| title_full | Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models |
| title_fullStr | Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models |
| title_short | Has EU Accession Boosted Patent Performance in the EU-13? A Critical Evaluation Using Causal Impact Analysis with Bayesian Structural Time-Series Models |
| title_sort | has eu accession boosted patent performance in the eu 13 a critical evaluation using causal impact analysis with bayesian structural time series models |
| topic | causal analysis European Union patents innovations Bayesian structural time-series models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/4/47 |
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