Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the dis...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/8/3/175 |
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| author | Tanatorn Intarapanya Apichat Suratanee Sittiporn Pattaradilokrat Kitiporn Plaimas |
| author_facet | Tanatorn Intarapanya Apichat Suratanee Sittiporn Pattaradilokrat Kitiporn Plaimas |
| author_sort | Tanatorn Intarapanya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, <i>SVIHR</i>, was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mfenced><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></mfenced></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:47:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-29bc4709afc44634875f553a359c9ad3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2414-6366 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:47:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
| spelling | doaj.art-29bc4709afc44634875f553a359c9ad32023-11-17T14:15:29ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662023-03-018317510.3390/tropicalmed8030175Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in ThailandTanatorn Intarapanya0Apichat Suratanee1Sittiporn Pattaradilokrat2Kitiporn Plaimas3Advanced Virtual and Intelligence Computing (AVIC) Center, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, ThailandDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok 10800, ThailandDepartment of Biology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, ThailandAdvanced Virtual and Intelligence Computing (AVIC) Center, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, ThailandCOVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, <i>SVIHR</i>, was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mfenced><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow></mfenced></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/8/3/175mathematical modelCOVID-19vaccine |
| spellingShingle | Tanatorn Intarapanya Apichat Suratanee Sittiporn Pattaradilokrat Kitiporn Plaimas Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease mathematical model COVID-19 vaccine |
| title | Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand |
| title_full | Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand |
| title_short | Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand |
| title_sort | modeling the spread of covid 19 with the control of mixed vaccine types during the pandemic in thailand |
| topic | mathematical model COVID-19 vaccine |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/8/3/175 |
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