Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction
Liang Wang, Liting Yang, Tao Li, Shanshan Geng Department of Cardiology, Shuyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shuyang, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Shanshan Geng, Department of Cardiology, Shuyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 28, Shanghai Road, Shu...
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Dove Medical Press
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Inflammation Research |
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| Online Access: | https://www.dovepress.com/development-and-validation-of-nomogram-for-the-prediction-of-malignant-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JIR |
| _version_ | 1797771007961858048 |
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| author | Wang L Yang L Li T Geng S |
| author_facet | Wang L Yang L Li T Geng S |
| author_sort | Wang L |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Liang Wang, Liting Yang, Tao Li, Shanshan Geng Department of Cardiology, Shuyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shuyang, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Shanshan Geng, Department of Cardiology, Shuyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 28, Shanghai Road, Shuyang, Jiangsu, 223600, People’s Republic of China, Tel + 86-052783562463, Email 1594743945@qq.comBackground: Malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) can seriously affect the hemodynamic changes of the body. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the in-hospital MVA risk in patients with STEMI after emergency PCI.Methods: The multivariable logistic regression analysis included variables with a P< 0.05 in the univariate logistic regression analysis and investigated the independent predictors affecting in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI in the training cohort. The construction of a nomogram model used independent predictors to predict the risk of in-hospital MVA, and C-index, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were used to validate the nomogram.Results: Killip class [OR=5.034 (95% CI: 1.596– 15.809), P=0.005], CK-MB [OR=1.002 (95% CI: 1.001– 1.004), P=0.022], serum potassium [OR=0.618 (95% CI: 0.406– 0.918), P=0.020], NLR [OR=1.073 (95% CI: 1.034– 1.115), P< 0.001], and monocyte [OR=1.974 (95% CI: 1.376– 2.925), P< 0.001] were the independent predictors of in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI. A nomogram including the 5 independent predictors was developed to predict the risk of in-hospital MVA. The C-index, equivalent to the area under the ROC curve (AUC), was 0.803 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.738– 0.868) in the training cohort, and 0.801 (95% CI:0.692– 0.911) in the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram had a good discrimination. The HL test (χ2=8.439, P=0.392 in the training cohort; χ2=9.730, P=0.285 in the validation cohort) revealed a good calibration. The DCA suggested an obvious clinical net benefit.Conclusion: Killip class, CK-MB, serum potassium, NLR, and monocyte were independent factors for in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI. The nomogram model constructed based on the above factors to predict the risk of in-hospital MVA had satisfactory discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness, and was an excellent tool for early prediction of the risk of in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI.Keywords: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, nomogram model, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, circulating inflammatory cells |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:31:18Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1178-7031 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T21:31:18Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
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| series | Journal of Inflammation Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-29d74a1883a449a4a5192b99b2e22a4a2023-07-27T19:14:33ZengDove Medical PressJournal of Inflammation Research1178-70312023-07-01Volume 163185319685494Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial InfarctionWang LYang LLi TGeng SLiang Wang, Liting Yang, Tao Li, Shanshan Geng Department of Cardiology, Shuyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shuyang, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Shanshan Geng, Department of Cardiology, Shuyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 28, Shanghai Road, Shuyang, Jiangsu, 223600, People’s Republic of China, Tel + 86-052783562463, Email 1594743945@qq.comBackground: Malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) can seriously affect the hemodynamic changes of the body. In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the in-hospital MVA risk in patients with STEMI after emergency PCI.Methods: The multivariable logistic regression analysis included variables with a P< 0.05 in the univariate logistic regression analysis and investigated the independent predictors affecting in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI in the training cohort. The construction of a nomogram model used independent predictors to predict the risk of in-hospital MVA, and C-index, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were used to validate the nomogram.Results: Killip class [OR=5.034 (95% CI: 1.596– 15.809), P=0.005], CK-MB [OR=1.002 (95% CI: 1.001– 1.004), P=0.022], serum potassium [OR=0.618 (95% CI: 0.406– 0.918), P=0.020], NLR [OR=1.073 (95% CI: 1.034– 1.115), P< 0.001], and monocyte [OR=1.974 (95% CI: 1.376– 2.925), P< 0.001] were the independent predictors of in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI. A nomogram including the 5 independent predictors was developed to predict the risk of in-hospital MVA. The C-index, equivalent to the area under the ROC curve (AUC), was 0.803 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.738– 0.868) in the training cohort, and 0.801 (95% CI:0.692– 0.911) in the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram had a good discrimination. The HL test (χ2=8.439, P=0.392 in the training cohort; χ2=9.730, P=0.285 in the validation cohort) revealed a good calibration. The DCA suggested an obvious clinical net benefit.Conclusion: Killip class, CK-MB, serum potassium, NLR, and monocyte were independent factors for in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI. The nomogram model constructed based on the above factors to predict the risk of in-hospital MVA had satisfactory discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness, and was an excellent tool for early prediction of the risk of in-hospital MVA after PCI in patients with STEMI.Keywords: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, nomogram model, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, circulating inflammatory cellshttps://www.dovepress.com/development-and-validation-of-nomogram-for-the-prediction-of-malignant-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JIRst-segment elevation myocardial infarctionpercutaneous coronary interventionnomogram modelmalignant ventricular arrhythmiacirculating inflammatory cells |
| spellingShingle | Wang L Yang L Li T Geng S Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Journal of Inflammation Research st-segment elevation myocardial infarction percutaneous coronary intervention nomogram model malignant ventricular arrhythmia circulating inflammatory cells |
| title | Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction |
| title_full | Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction |
| title_short | Development and Validation of Nomogram for the Prediction of Malignant Ventricular Arrhythmia Including Circulating Inflammatory Cells in Patients with Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction |
| title_sort | development and validation of nomogram for the prediction of malignant ventricular arrhythmia including circulating inflammatory cells in patients with acute st segment elevation myocardial infarction |
| topic | st-segment elevation myocardial infarction percutaneous coronary intervention nomogram model malignant ventricular arrhythmia circulating inflammatory cells |
| url | https://www.dovepress.com/development-and-validation-of-nomogram-for-the-prediction-of-malignant-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-JIR |
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