Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields
Abstract Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2 |
| _version_ | 1797864966333661184 |
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| author | Matias Heino Pekka Kinnunen Weston Anderson Deepak K. Ray Michael J. Puma Olli Varis Stefan Siebert Matti Kummu |
| author_facet | Matias Heino Pekka Kinnunen Weston Anderson Deepak K. Ray Michael J. Puma Olli Varis Stefan Siebert Matti Kummu |
| author_sort | Matias Heino |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at the global scale for 1980–2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely hot and dry events have globally consistent negative effects on the yields of all inspected crop types. Extremely cold and wet conditions were observed to reduce crop yields globally too, although to a lesser extent and the impacts being more uncertain and inconsistent. Critically, we found that over the study period, the probability of co-occurring extreme hot and dry events during the growing season increased across all inspected crop types; wheat showing the largest, up to a six-fold, increase. Hence, our study highlights the potentially detrimental impacts that increasing climate variability can have on global food production. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:01:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2a01ea4ee3fc4576a52d598d7e5490c6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:01:28Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-2a01ea4ee3fc4576a52d598d7e5490c62023-03-22T10:56:59ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-03-0113111310.1038/s41598-023-29378-2Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yieldsMatias Heino0Pekka Kinnunen1Weston Anderson2Deepak K. Ray3Michael J. Puma4Olli Varis5Stefan Siebert6Matti Kummu7Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, FinlandWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, FinlandInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia UniversityInstitute On the Environment, University of MinnesotaCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia UniversityWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, FinlandDepartment of Crop Sciences, University of GoettingenWater and Development Research Group, Aalto University, FinlandAbstract Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at the global scale for 1980–2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely hot and dry events have globally consistent negative effects on the yields of all inspected crop types. Extremely cold and wet conditions were observed to reduce crop yields globally too, although to a lesser extent and the impacts being more uncertain and inconsistent. Critically, we found that over the study period, the probability of co-occurring extreme hot and dry events during the growing season increased across all inspected crop types; wheat showing the largest, up to a six-fold, increase. Hence, our study highlights the potentially detrimental impacts that increasing climate variability can have on global food production.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2 |
| spellingShingle | Matias Heino Pekka Kinnunen Weston Anderson Deepak K. Ray Michael J. Puma Olli Varis Stefan Siebert Matti Kummu Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields Scientific Reports |
| title | Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields |
| title_full | Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields |
| title_fullStr | Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields |
| title_short | Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields |
| title_sort | increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2 |
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